Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 293-313 |
| Number of pages | 21 |
| Journal | PUBLIC CHOICE |
| Volume | 169 |
| Issue number | 3-4 |
| Early online date | 27 Sept 2016 |
| Publication status | Published - 1 Dec 2016 |
Abstract
Over the last several decades, both economists and political scientists have shown interest in coups d’état. Numerous studies have been dedicated to understanding the causes of coups. However, model uncertainty still looms large. About one hundred potential determinants of coups have been proposed, but no consensus has emerged on an established baseline model for analyzing coups. We address this problem by testing the sensitivity of inferences to over three million model permutations in an extreme bounds analysis. Overall, we test the robustness of 66 factors proposed in the empirical literature based on a monthly sample of 164 countries that covers the years 1952–2011. We find that slow economic growth rates, previous coup experiences, and other forms of political violence to be particularly conducive to inciting coups.
Keywords
- Coup-proofing, Coups d’état, Extreme bounds analysis, Military coups
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Social Sciences(all)
- Sociology and Political Science
- Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all)
- Economics and Econometrics
Sustainable Development Goals
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In: PUBLIC CHOICE, Vol. 169, No. 3-4, 01.12.2016, p. 293-313.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - When to expect a coup d’état?
T2 - An extreme bounds analysis of coup determinants
AU - Gassebner, Martin
AU - Gutmann, Jerg
AU - Voigt, Stefan
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media New York.
PY - 2016/12/1
Y1 - 2016/12/1
N2 - Over the last several decades, both economists and political scientists have shown interest in coups d’état. Numerous studies have been dedicated to understanding the causes of coups. However, model uncertainty still looms large. About one hundred potential determinants of coups have been proposed, but no consensus has emerged on an established baseline model for analyzing coups. We address this problem by testing the sensitivity of inferences to over three million model permutations in an extreme bounds analysis. Overall, we test the robustness of 66 factors proposed in the empirical literature based on a monthly sample of 164 countries that covers the years 1952–2011. We find that slow economic growth rates, previous coup experiences, and other forms of political violence to be particularly conducive to inciting coups.
AB - Over the last several decades, both economists and political scientists have shown interest in coups d’état. Numerous studies have been dedicated to understanding the causes of coups. However, model uncertainty still looms large. About one hundred potential determinants of coups have been proposed, but no consensus has emerged on an established baseline model for analyzing coups. We address this problem by testing the sensitivity of inferences to over three million model permutations in an extreme bounds analysis. Overall, we test the robustness of 66 factors proposed in the empirical literature based on a monthly sample of 164 countries that covers the years 1952–2011. We find that slow economic growth rates, previous coup experiences, and other forms of political violence to be particularly conducive to inciting coups.
KW - Coup-proofing
KW - Coups d’état
KW - Extreme bounds analysis
KW - Military coups
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84988731386&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s11127-016-0365-0
DO - 10.1007/s11127-016-0365-0
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84988731386
VL - 169
SP - 293
EP - 313
JO - PUBLIC CHOICE
JF - PUBLIC CHOICE
SN - 0048-5829
IS - 3-4
ER -