Versorgungsgradprognosen als Baustein einer evidenzbasierten Versorgungsplanung

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer review

Authors

  • Stephan L. Thomsen
  • Kai Ingwersen
  • Insa Weilage

Research Organisations

External Research Organisations

  • Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW)
  • Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
View graph of relations

Details

Translated title of the contributionCare supply projections as a building block of evidence-based health services planning
Original languageGerman
Pages (from-to)45-54
Number of pages10
JournalZeitschrift fur Evidenz, Fortbildung und Qualitat im Gesundheitswesen
Volume162
Early online date12 Apr 2021
Publication statusPublished - May 2021

Abstract

Introduction: As part of the measures to combat the shortage of general practitioners (GPs) particularly in rural areas, health services planning is becoming increasingly important. Methods: This paper shows how the quality of health services planning can be improved by combining population forecasts and physician number forecasts based on the cohort component method. On the basis of already available data (population data and doctors’ registers), developments in the levels of care supply can be predicted on a small regional scale. The regional and temporal differentiation allows for early identification of specific needs for action. However, it is important to consider limitations in the interpretation of results. Results: The example of Lower Saxony shows that by 2035 a decline of more than 20% in the number of GPs is expected. At the same time, regions are affected to varying degrees, and even within the more vulnerable rural areas there are heterogeneous developments which require regionally adapted responses. Conclusion: The greater the gap between supply and demand, the more important high-quality planning for efficient allocation of health services becomes. Against this background, care supply projections can serve as a useful building block of evidence-based care planning.

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Sustainable Development Goals

Cite this

Versorgungsgradprognosen als Baustein einer evidenzbasierten Versorgungsplanung. / Thomsen, Stephan L.; Ingwersen, Kai; Weilage, Insa.
In: Zeitschrift fur Evidenz, Fortbildung und Qualitat im Gesundheitswesen, Vol. 162, 05.2021, p. 45-54.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer review

Thomsen, SL, Ingwersen, K & Weilage, I 2021, 'Versorgungsgradprognosen als Baustein einer evidenzbasierten Versorgungsplanung', Zeitschrift fur Evidenz, Fortbildung und Qualitat im Gesundheitswesen, vol. 162, pp. 45-54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.zefq.2021.02.002
Thomsen, S. L., Ingwersen, K., & Weilage, I. (2021). Versorgungsgradprognosen als Baustein einer evidenzbasierten Versorgungsplanung. Zeitschrift fur Evidenz, Fortbildung und Qualitat im Gesundheitswesen, 162, 45-54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.zefq.2021.02.002
Thomsen SL, Ingwersen K, Weilage I. Versorgungsgradprognosen als Baustein einer evidenzbasierten Versorgungsplanung. Zeitschrift fur Evidenz, Fortbildung und Qualitat im Gesundheitswesen. 2021 May;162:45-54. Epub 2021 Apr 12. doi: 10.1016/j.zefq.2021.02.002
Thomsen, Stephan L. ; Ingwersen, Kai ; Weilage, Insa. / Versorgungsgradprognosen als Baustein einer evidenzbasierten Versorgungsplanung. In: Zeitschrift fur Evidenz, Fortbildung und Qualitat im Gesundheitswesen. 2021 ; Vol. 162. pp. 45-54.
Download
@article{a296d22f97d249bfb4a5fde548c14b9f,
title = "Versorgungsgradprognosen als Baustein einer evidenzbasierten Versorgungsplanung",
abstract = "Introduction: As part of the measures to combat the shortage of general practitioners (GPs) particularly in rural areas, health services planning is becoming increasingly important. Methods: This paper shows how the quality of health services planning can be improved by combining population forecasts and physician number forecasts based on the cohort component method. On the basis of already available data (population data and doctors{\textquoteright} registers), developments in the levels of care supply can be predicted on a small regional scale. The regional and temporal differentiation allows for early identification of specific needs for action. However, it is important to consider limitations in the interpretation of results. Results: The example of Lower Saxony shows that by 2035 a decline of more than 20% in the number of GPs is expected. At the same time, regions are affected to varying degrees, and even within the more vulnerable rural areas there are heterogeneous developments which require regionally adapted responses. Conclusion: The greater the gap between supply and demand, the more important high-quality planning for efficient allocation of health services becomes. Against this background, care supply projections can serve as a useful building block of evidence-based care planning.",
keywords = "Evidence-based health care, General practitioners, Health services planning, Health services research, Labour requirements",
author = "Thomsen, {Stephan L.} and Kai Ingwersen and Insa Weilage",
year = "2021",
month = may,
doi = "10.1016/j.zefq.2021.02.002",
language = "Deutsch",
volume = "162",
pages = "45--54",

}

Download

TY - JOUR

T1 - Versorgungsgradprognosen als Baustein einer evidenzbasierten Versorgungsplanung

AU - Thomsen, Stephan L.

AU - Ingwersen, Kai

AU - Weilage, Insa

PY - 2021/5

Y1 - 2021/5

N2 - Introduction: As part of the measures to combat the shortage of general practitioners (GPs) particularly in rural areas, health services planning is becoming increasingly important. Methods: This paper shows how the quality of health services planning can be improved by combining population forecasts and physician number forecasts based on the cohort component method. On the basis of already available data (population data and doctors’ registers), developments in the levels of care supply can be predicted on a small regional scale. The regional and temporal differentiation allows for early identification of specific needs for action. However, it is important to consider limitations in the interpretation of results. Results: The example of Lower Saxony shows that by 2035 a decline of more than 20% in the number of GPs is expected. At the same time, regions are affected to varying degrees, and even within the more vulnerable rural areas there are heterogeneous developments which require regionally adapted responses. Conclusion: The greater the gap between supply and demand, the more important high-quality planning for efficient allocation of health services becomes. Against this background, care supply projections can serve as a useful building block of evidence-based care planning.

AB - Introduction: As part of the measures to combat the shortage of general practitioners (GPs) particularly in rural areas, health services planning is becoming increasingly important. Methods: This paper shows how the quality of health services planning can be improved by combining population forecasts and physician number forecasts based on the cohort component method. On the basis of already available data (population data and doctors’ registers), developments in the levels of care supply can be predicted on a small regional scale. The regional and temporal differentiation allows for early identification of specific needs for action. However, it is important to consider limitations in the interpretation of results. Results: The example of Lower Saxony shows that by 2035 a decline of more than 20% in the number of GPs is expected. At the same time, regions are affected to varying degrees, and even within the more vulnerable rural areas there are heterogeneous developments which require regionally adapted responses. Conclusion: The greater the gap between supply and demand, the more important high-quality planning for efficient allocation of health services becomes. Against this background, care supply projections can serve as a useful building block of evidence-based care planning.

KW - Evidence-based health care

KW - General practitioners

KW - Health services planning

KW - Health services research

KW - Labour requirements

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85103948522&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.zefq.2021.02.002

DO - 10.1016/j.zefq.2021.02.002

M3 - Artikel

C2 - 33849805

AN - SCOPUS:85103948522

VL - 162

SP - 45

EP - 54

JO - Zeitschrift fur Evidenz, Fortbildung und Qualitat im Gesundheitswesen

JF - Zeitschrift fur Evidenz, Fortbildung und Qualitat im Gesundheitswesen

SN - 1865-9217

ER -