Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 417-432 |
| Number of pages | 16 |
| Journal | International Journal of Climatology |
| Volume | 35 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| Early online date | 25 Mar 2014 |
| Publication status | Published - 15 Mar 2015 |
Abstract
For climate impact assessment regarding hydrology, the availability of long precipitation time series with high temporal and spatial resolution is essential. A possible approach to obtain this data is the statistical downscaling of precipitation simulated by a global climate model (GCM) using a stochastic rainfall model with parameters conditioned on circulation patterns (CP). This approach requires: (1) the existence of a strong relationship between CP and precipitation, (2) the sufficient reproduction of CPs by the GCM, (3) the adequate simulation of precipitation by the rainfall model and (4) either stationarity of the relationship between precipitation and CPs or an approach to account for non-stationarity. The objective of this research is the careful evaluation and discussion of the above stated four hypotheses. For this purpose, a case study for the Aller-Leine river basin in Northern Germany has been created. It has been found that CPs can be defined which show significant differences in precipitation behaviour. The CPs derived from re-analysis data are well reproduced by the GCM simulations. In addition, the hourly stochastic rainfall model simulates the observed precipitation characteristics well, except for a certain overestimation of the extremes. However, the change in rainfall between past and future time periods as predicted by a regional climate model could not be explained by the change in CP frequency, due to the non-stationarity of the relationship between rainfall and CP. This can be best accounted for by re-estimating the parameters of the stochastic rainfall model for future conditions based on corrected observations using a delta change approach regarding simulated rainfall from a regional climate model.
Keywords
- Circulation patterns, Downscaling, ECHAM, Fuzzy rules, REMO, Stochastic rainfall model
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
- Atmospheric Science
Sustainable Development Goals
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In: International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 35, No. 3, 15.03.2015, p. 417-432.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Statistical downscaling of precipitation using a stochastic rainfall model conditioned on circulation patterns
T2 - an evaluation of assumptions
AU - Haberlandt, Uwe
AU - Belli, Aslan
AU - Bárdossy, András
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2014 Royal Meteorological Society.
PY - 2015/3/15
Y1 - 2015/3/15
N2 - For climate impact assessment regarding hydrology, the availability of long precipitation time series with high temporal and spatial resolution is essential. A possible approach to obtain this data is the statistical downscaling of precipitation simulated by a global climate model (GCM) using a stochastic rainfall model with parameters conditioned on circulation patterns (CP). This approach requires: (1) the existence of a strong relationship between CP and precipitation, (2) the sufficient reproduction of CPs by the GCM, (3) the adequate simulation of precipitation by the rainfall model and (4) either stationarity of the relationship between precipitation and CPs or an approach to account for non-stationarity. The objective of this research is the careful evaluation and discussion of the above stated four hypotheses. For this purpose, a case study for the Aller-Leine river basin in Northern Germany has been created. It has been found that CPs can be defined which show significant differences in precipitation behaviour. The CPs derived from re-analysis data are well reproduced by the GCM simulations. In addition, the hourly stochastic rainfall model simulates the observed precipitation characteristics well, except for a certain overestimation of the extremes. However, the change in rainfall between past and future time periods as predicted by a regional climate model could not be explained by the change in CP frequency, due to the non-stationarity of the relationship between rainfall and CP. This can be best accounted for by re-estimating the parameters of the stochastic rainfall model for future conditions based on corrected observations using a delta change approach regarding simulated rainfall from a regional climate model.
AB - For climate impact assessment regarding hydrology, the availability of long precipitation time series with high temporal and spatial resolution is essential. A possible approach to obtain this data is the statistical downscaling of precipitation simulated by a global climate model (GCM) using a stochastic rainfall model with parameters conditioned on circulation patterns (CP). This approach requires: (1) the existence of a strong relationship between CP and precipitation, (2) the sufficient reproduction of CPs by the GCM, (3) the adequate simulation of precipitation by the rainfall model and (4) either stationarity of the relationship between precipitation and CPs or an approach to account for non-stationarity. The objective of this research is the careful evaluation and discussion of the above stated four hypotheses. For this purpose, a case study for the Aller-Leine river basin in Northern Germany has been created. It has been found that CPs can be defined which show significant differences in precipitation behaviour. The CPs derived from re-analysis data are well reproduced by the GCM simulations. In addition, the hourly stochastic rainfall model simulates the observed precipitation characteristics well, except for a certain overestimation of the extremes. However, the change in rainfall between past and future time periods as predicted by a regional climate model could not be explained by the change in CP frequency, due to the non-stationarity of the relationship between rainfall and CP. This can be best accounted for by re-estimating the parameters of the stochastic rainfall model for future conditions based on corrected observations using a delta change approach regarding simulated rainfall from a regional climate model.
KW - Circulation patterns
KW - Downscaling
KW - ECHAM
KW - Fuzzy rules
KW - REMO
KW - Stochastic rainfall model
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84923842346&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1002/joc.3989
DO - 10.1002/joc.3989
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84923842346
VL - 35
SP - 417
EP - 432
JO - International Journal of Climatology
JF - International Journal of Climatology
SN - 0899-8418
IS - 3
ER -