Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | 2019 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence, SSCI 2019 |
| Publisher | Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. |
| Pages | 776-783 |
| Number of pages | 8 |
| ISBN (electronic) | 9781728124858 |
| ISBN (print) | 9781728124865 |
| Publication status | Published - Dec 2019 |
| Event | 2019 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence, SSCI 2019 - Xiamen, China Duration: 6 Dec 2019 → 9 Dec 2019 |
Abstract
Bayesian Network (BN) is an efficient model tool for approximate reasoning based on machine learning. It has been widely used for supporting the decision in many engineering applications such as geotechnical engineering. However, the current studies on BN are mostly on uncertainty quantification and decision-making, while the sensitivity analysis on BN, which may provide much more insights for decision-making, has not received much attention. The current research on sensitivity analysis of BN mainly focuses on local method, and there is a need to develop global sensitivity analysis (GSA) for both forward and backward inferences of BN. We present in this paper GSA analysis for BN within two different settings. For the first setting, it is assumed that the BN nodes, as well as their connection are characterized by precise (conditional) probabilities, and we introduce GSA for both forward and backward analysis. It is shown that, by forward analysis, the GSA indices can effectively identify the nodes which make the most contribution to the end nodes directly related to the reliability; by backward analysis, the GSA indices can inform the most important information needs to be collected for BN model updating. The second setting concerns the incomplete knowledge of nodes and their connections, and it is assumed these quantities are characterized by imprecise probability models. In this setting, the GSA is then introduced, and implemented with the newly developed non-intrusive imprecise stochastic simulation (NISS) method, for learning the most important epistemic uncertainty sources, by reducing which the robustness of the BN inference can be enhanced the most. The above theoretical developments are then applied to an infinite slope reliability analysis problem.
Keywords
- Advanced Bayesian networks, Dependence measure, Global sensitivity analysis, Imprecise stochastic simulation, Second-order probability model
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Computer Science(all)
- Artificial Intelligence
- Computer Science(all)
- Computer Science Applications
- Mathematics(all)
- Modelling and Simulation
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2019 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence, SSCI 2019. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2019. p. 776-783 9003122.
Research output: Chapter in book/report/conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Research › peer review
}
TY - GEN
T1 - Sensitivity analysis of prior beliefs in advanced Bayesian networks
AU - He, Longxue
AU - Beer, Michael
AU - Broggi, Matteo
AU - Wei, Pengfei
AU - Gomes, António Topa
N1 - Funding Information: This work is supported by Chinese Scholarship Council.
PY - 2019/12
Y1 - 2019/12
N2 - Bayesian Network (BN) is an efficient model tool for approximate reasoning based on machine learning. It has been widely used for supporting the decision in many engineering applications such as geotechnical engineering. However, the current studies on BN are mostly on uncertainty quantification and decision-making, while the sensitivity analysis on BN, which may provide much more insights for decision-making, has not received much attention. The current research on sensitivity analysis of BN mainly focuses on local method, and there is a need to develop global sensitivity analysis (GSA) for both forward and backward inferences of BN. We present in this paper GSA analysis for BN within two different settings. For the first setting, it is assumed that the BN nodes, as well as their connection are characterized by precise (conditional) probabilities, and we introduce GSA for both forward and backward analysis. It is shown that, by forward analysis, the GSA indices can effectively identify the nodes which make the most contribution to the end nodes directly related to the reliability; by backward analysis, the GSA indices can inform the most important information needs to be collected for BN model updating. The second setting concerns the incomplete knowledge of nodes and their connections, and it is assumed these quantities are characterized by imprecise probability models. In this setting, the GSA is then introduced, and implemented with the newly developed non-intrusive imprecise stochastic simulation (NISS) method, for learning the most important epistemic uncertainty sources, by reducing which the robustness of the BN inference can be enhanced the most. The above theoretical developments are then applied to an infinite slope reliability analysis problem.
AB - Bayesian Network (BN) is an efficient model tool for approximate reasoning based on machine learning. It has been widely used for supporting the decision in many engineering applications such as geotechnical engineering. However, the current studies on BN are mostly on uncertainty quantification and decision-making, while the sensitivity analysis on BN, which may provide much more insights for decision-making, has not received much attention. The current research on sensitivity analysis of BN mainly focuses on local method, and there is a need to develop global sensitivity analysis (GSA) for both forward and backward inferences of BN. We present in this paper GSA analysis for BN within two different settings. For the first setting, it is assumed that the BN nodes, as well as their connection are characterized by precise (conditional) probabilities, and we introduce GSA for both forward and backward analysis. It is shown that, by forward analysis, the GSA indices can effectively identify the nodes which make the most contribution to the end nodes directly related to the reliability; by backward analysis, the GSA indices can inform the most important information needs to be collected for BN model updating. The second setting concerns the incomplete knowledge of nodes and their connections, and it is assumed these quantities are characterized by imprecise probability models. In this setting, the GSA is then introduced, and implemented with the newly developed non-intrusive imprecise stochastic simulation (NISS) method, for learning the most important epistemic uncertainty sources, by reducing which the robustness of the BN inference can be enhanced the most. The above theoretical developments are then applied to an infinite slope reliability analysis problem.
KW - Advanced Bayesian networks
KW - Dependence measure
KW - Global sensitivity analysis
KW - Imprecise stochastic simulation
KW - Second-order probability model
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85080970509&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1109/SSCI44817.2019.9003122
DO - 10.1109/SSCI44817.2019.9003122
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85080970509
SN - 9781728124865
SP - 776
EP - 783
BT - 2019 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence, SSCI 2019
PB - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
T2 - 2019 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence, SSCI 2019
Y2 - 6 December 2019 through 9 December 2019
ER -