Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 912-929 |
| Journal | Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications |
| Volume | 32 |
| Issue number | 12 |
| Publication status | Published - Nov 2024 |
Abstract
Photovoltaics (PV) on building rooftops is a major contributor to the decarbonization of energy systems. We simulate the PV energy yield potential for 2.5 million individual roofs in three German regions. We cumulate the results for each single roof to calculate the cost-potential curves for the three cities Berlin, Cologne, and Hanover. These curves give the amount of electricity that can be generated at less than a given cost per kWh. We find that these curves have the shape of a hockey stick. Neglecting the dependence of PV investment on building size and thus on the system sizes causes largely different cost-potential curves that differ by 11%–18% for flat roofs due to their heterogeneous building size distribution. The cost-potential curves of the three cities are very similar when appropriately normalized, for example, by the local solar irradiation and the settlement area of the city, despite substantial variations in population density. This allows for an extrapolation of our results. For Germany, we reveal an upper limit for the total electricity generation from rooftop PV of 762 TWh/a with cost as low as 6.9 ct/kWh without accounting for area losses due to chimneys, air conditioning systems, and so forth. We estimate the actual potential to be at least half of that figure.
Keywords
- cost-potential curves, potential analysis, ray tracing, rooftop photovoltaics
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Materials Science(all)
- Electronic, Optical and Magnetic Materials
- Energy(all)
- Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
- Physics and Astronomy(all)
- Condensed Matter Physics
- Engineering(all)
- Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Sustainable Development Goals
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In: Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, Vol. 32, No. 12, 11.2024, p. 912-929.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Rooftop PV Potential Determined by Backward Ray Tracing
T2 - A Case Study for the German Regions of Berlin, Cologne, and Hanover
AU - Schlemminger, Marlon
AU - Bredemeier, Dennis
AU - Mahner, Alexander
AU - Niepelt, Raphael
AU - Breitner, Michael H
AU - Brendel, Rolf
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2024 The Author(s). Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
PY - 2024/11
Y1 - 2024/11
N2 - Photovoltaics (PV) on building rooftops is a major contributor to the decarbonization of energy systems. We simulate the PV energy yield potential for 2.5 million individual roofs in three German regions. We cumulate the results for each single roof to calculate the cost-potential curves for the three cities Berlin, Cologne, and Hanover. These curves give the amount of electricity that can be generated at less than a given cost per kWh. We find that these curves have the shape of a hockey stick. Neglecting the dependence of PV investment on building size and thus on the system sizes causes largely different cost-potential curves that differ by 11%–18% for flat roofs due to their heterogeneous building size distribution. The cost-potential curves of the three cities are very similar when appropriately normalized, for example, by the local solar irradiation and the settlement area of the city, despite substantial variations in population density. This allows for an extrapolation of our results. For Germany, we reveal an upper limit for the total electricity generation from rooftop PV of 762 TWh/a with cost as low as 6.9 ct/kWh without accounting for area losses due to chimneys, air conditioning systems, and so forth. We estimate the actual potential to be at least half of that figure.
AB - Photovoltaics (PV) on building rooftops is a major contributor to the decarbonization of energy systems. We simulate the PV energy yield potential for 2.5 million individual roofs in three German regions. We cumulate the results for each single roof to calculate the cost-potential curves for the three cities Berlin, Cologne, and Hanover. These curves give the amount of electricity that can be generated at less than a given cost per kWh. We find that these curves have the shape of a hockey stick. Neglecting the dependence of PV investment on building size and thus on the system sizes causes largely different cost-potential curves that differ by 11%–18% for flat roofs due to their heterogeneous building size distribution. The cost-potential curves of the three cities are very similar when appropriately normalized, for example, by the local solar irradiation and the settlement area of the city, despite substantial variations in population density. This allows for an extrapolation of our results. For Germany, we reveal an upper limit for the total electricity generation from rooftop PV of 762 TWh/a with cost as low as 6.9 ct/kWh without accounting for area losses due to chimneys, air conditioning systems, and so forth. We estimate the actual potential to be at least half of that figure.
KW - cost-potential curves
KW - potential analysis
KW - ray tracing
KW - rooftop photovoltaics
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85204072960&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1002/pip.3844
DO - 10.1002/pip.3844
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85204072960
VL - 32
SP - 912
EP - 929
JO - Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications
JF - Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications
SN - 1062-7995
IS - 12
ER -