Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | Tagungsband Multikonferenz Wirtschaftsinformatik 2014, MKWI 2014 |
| Editors | Dennis Kundisch, Lars Beckmann, Leena Suhl |
| Pages | 949-961 |
| Number of pages | 13 |
| ISBN (electronic) | 9783000453113 |
| Publication status | Published - 2014 |
| Event | Multikonferenz Wirtschaftsinformatik, MKWI 2014 - Multi-Conference on Business Informatics, MKWI 2014 - Paderborn, Germany Duration: 26 Feb 2014 → 28 Feb 2014 |
Publication series
| Name | Tagungsband Multikonferenz Wirtschaftsinformatik 2014, MKWI 2014 |
|---|
Abstract
In scientific literature, profitability analyses of on-and offshore wind energy projects and assessments of general conditions for such projects usually make use of the full load hours (FLH) key figure to determine the annually generated electricity. This procedure leads to adequate results, if only the expected value of each parameter is taken into account. However, it is difficult to choose an adequate type of distribution and to define suitable distribution parameters for the FLH when project risks are considered. In this paper, a multi factor model using the more basic parameter of the average wind speed and a Weibull distribution is provided. This approach is integrated into a discounted cash flow (DCF) model on which a Monte Carlo simulation is applied. Finally, a case study for an offshore wind park in the German North Sea is conducted. It is shown that the application of the presented approach leads to more precise distributions of the outcomes than the standard analysis with FLH.
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Business, Management and Accounting(all)
- Business and International Management
- Business, Management and Accounting(all)
- Management Information Systems
- Computer Science(all)
- Computer Science Applications
- Computer Science(all)
- Information Systems
- Computer Science(all)
- Software
Cite this
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- Apa
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- BibTeX
- RIS
Tagungsband Multikonferenz Wirtschaftsinformatik 2014, MKWI 2014. ed. / Dennis Kundisch; Lars Beckmann; Leena Suhl. 2014. p. 949-961 (Tagungsband Multikonferenz Wirtschaftsinformatik 2014, MKWI 2014).
Research output: Chapter in book/report/conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Research › peer review
}
TY - GEN
T1 - Replacing the full load hours key figure for the risk assessment of wind energy projects
AU - Koukal, André
AU - Lange, Stefan
AU - Breitner, Michael H.
N1 - Copyright: Copyright 2017 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2014
Y1 - 2014
N2 - In scientific literature, profitability analyses of on-and offshore wind energy projects and assessments of general conditions for such projects usually make use of the full load hours (FLH) key figure to determine the annually generated electricity. This procedure leads to adequate results, if only the expected value of each parameter is taken into account. However, it is difficult to choose an adequate type of distribution and to define suitable distribution parameters for the FLH when project risks are considered. In this paper, a multi factor model using the more basic parameter of the average wind speed and a Weibull distribution is provided. This approach is integrated into a discounted cash flow (DCF) model on which a Monte Carlo simulation is applied. Finally, a case study for an offshore wind park in the German North Sea is conducted. It is shown that the application of the presented approach leads to more precise distributions of the outcomes than the standard analysis with FLH.
AB - In scientific literature, profitability analyses of on-and offshore wind energy projects and assessments of general conditions for such projects usually make use of the full load hours (FLH) key figure to determine the annually generated electricity. This procedure leads to adequate results, if only the expected value of each parameter is taken into account. However, it is difficult to choose an adequate type of distribution and to define suitable distribution parameters for the FLH when project risks are considered. In this paper, a multi factor model using the more basic parameter of the average wind speed and a Weibull distribution is provided. This approach is integrated into a discounted cash flow (DCF) model on which a Monte Carlo simulation is applied. Finally, a case study for an offshore wind park in the German North Sea is conducted. It is shown that the application of the presented approach leads to more precise distributions of the outcomes than the standard analysis with FLH.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84984677486&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84984677486
T3 - Tagungsband Multikonferenz Wirtschaftsinformatik 2014, MKWI 2014
SP - 949
EP - 961
BT - Tagungsband Multikonferenz Wirtschaftsinformatik 2014, MKWI 2014
A2 - Kundisch, Dennis
A2 - Beckmann, Lars
A2 - Suhl, Leena
T2 - Multikonferenz Wirtschaftsinformatik, MKWI 2014 - Multi-Conference on Business Informatics, MKWI 2014
Y2 - 26 February 2014 through 28 February 2014
ER -