Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | Reducing the Vulnerability of Societies to Water Related Risks at the Basin Scale |
| Pages | 337-341 |
| Number of pages | 5 |
| Edition | 317 |
| Publication status | Published - 2007 |
| Externally published | Yes |
| Event | Reducing the Vulnerability of Societies to Water Related Risks at the Basin Scale - 3rd International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management - Bochum, Germany Duration: 26 Sept 2006 → 28 Sept 2006 |
Publication series
| Name | IAHS-AISH Publication |
|---|---|
| Number | 317 |
| ISSN (Print) | 0144-7815 |
Abstract
Flood forecasts are essential to issue reliable flood warnings and to initiate flood control measures on time. However, these forecasts comprise different uncertainties. Ensemble forecasts are means of describing different scenarios of the potential future development assuming different initial conditions, different model physics, or even different models. Hence they contribute to the estimation of the hydro-meteorological forecast uncertainty. This paper presents a methodology that is designed to support decision makers in issuing flood alerts, which are based on a probabilistic evaluation of flood forecast ensembles. First results from a case study at the mountainous Mulde catchment are shown using COSMO-LEPS meteorological ensemble forecasts for the extreme flood event in 2002. The rainfall-runoff model ArcEGMO was used to simulate discharge forecast ensembles.
Keywords
- Ensemble forecasting, Flood management, Hydrological modelling, Risk assessment
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
- General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Cite this
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Reducing the Vulnerability of Societies to Water Related Risks at the Basin Scale. 317. ed. 2007. p. 337-341 (IAHS-AISH Publication; No. 317).
Research output: Chapter in book/report/conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Research › peer review
}
TY - GEN
T1 - Operational flood risk management based on ensemble predictions
AU - Dietrich, Jörg
AU - Voss, Frank
AU - Schumann, Andreas
PY - 2007
Y1 - 2007
N2 - Flood forecasts are essential to issue reliable flood warnings and to initiate flood control measures on time. However, these forecasts comprise different uncertainties. Ensemble forecasts are means of describing different scenarios of the potential future development assuming different initial conditions, different model physics, or even different models. Hence they contribute to the estimation of the hydro-meteorological forecast uncertainty. This paper presents a methodology that is designed to support decision makers in issuing flood alerts, which are based on a probabilistic evaluation of flood forecast ensembles. First results from a case study at the mountainous Mulde catchment are shown using COSMO-LEPS meteorological ensemble forecasts for the extreme flood event in 2002. The rainfall-runoff model ArcEGMO was used to simulate discharge forecast ensembles.
AB - Flood forecasts are essential to issue reliable flood warnings and to initiate flood control measures on time. However, these forecasts comprise different uncertainties. Ensemble forecasts are means of describing different scenarios of the potential future development assuming different initial conditions, different model physics, or even different models. Hence they contribute to the estimation of the hydro-meteorological forecast uncertainty. This paper presents a methodology that is designed to support decision makers in issuing flood alerts, which are based on a probabilistic evaluation of flood forecast ensembles. First results from a case study at the mountainous Mulde catchment are shown using COSMO-LEPS meteorological ensemble forecasts for the extreme flood event in 2002. The rainfall-runoff model ArcEGMO was used to simulate discharge forecast ensembles.
KW - Ensemble forecasting
KW - Flood management
KW - Hydrological modelling
KW - Risk assessment
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=55849090720&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:55849090720
SN - 9781901502299
T3 - IAHS-AISH Publication
SP - 337
EP - 341
BT - Reducing the Vulnerability of Societies to Water Related Risks at the Basin Scale
T2 - Reducing the Vulnerability of Societies to Water Related Risks at the Basin Scale - 3rd International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management
Y2 - 26 September 2006 through 28 September 2006
ER -