Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 225-234 |
| Number of pages | 10 |
| Journal | Meteorologische Zeitschrift |
| Volume | 28 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| Early online date | 1 Apr 2019 |
| Publication status | Published - 9 Oct 2019 |
Abstract
A one-dimensional boundary layer model was used to study the effects of uncertain input data on 2-m temperature and 10-m wind. Based on a very large number of numerical results, it can be demonstrated, that even a small degree of ambiguity can have significant implications, especially for temperature. In 50 % of all 6,000 simulations for flat terrain and randomly chosen sets of input data within narrow limits, temperature uncertainty was more than 2 K, and in 14 % of all cases more than 4 K, with a maximum of 9 K. Effect on wind speed is much smaller and depends mostly on surface roughness length. For a forest scenario, the results for temperature of 18,000 simulations are in the same order, with 25 % of the ensemble show temperature uncertainties of more than 2 K, and 6 % of more than 4 K, while wind speed above a forest is much more affected than for the bare soil case. In addition, the contribution of uncertainties of individual input data was estimated.
Keywords
- Boundary layer model, Flat terrain, Forest, Input data uncertainties, Sensitivity study
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
- Atmospheric Science
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In: Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol. 28, No. 3, 09.10.2019, p. 225-234.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - On the range of boundary layer model results depending on inaccurate input data
AU - Gross, Günter
N1 - Acknowledgements: This paper is part of the MOSAIK-project, which is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) under Grant 01LP1601 within the framework of Research for Sustainable Development (FONA; www.fona.de).
PY - 2019/10/9
Y1 - 2019/10/9
N2 - A one-dimensional boundary layer model was used to study the effects of uncertain input data on 2-m temperature and 10-m wind. Based on a very large number of numerical results, it can be demonstrated, that even a small degree of ambiguity can have significant implications, especially for temperature. In 50 % of all 6,000 simulations for flat terrain and randomly chosen sets of input data within narrow limits, temperature uncertainty was more than 2 K, and in 14 % of all cases more than 4 K, with a maximum of 9 K. Effect on wind speed is much smaller and depends mostly on surface roughness length. For a forest scenario, the results for temperature of 18,000 simulations are in the same order, with 25 % of the ensemble show temperature uncertainties of more than 2 K, and 6 % of more than 4 K, while wind speed above a forest is much more affected than for the bare soil case. In addition, the contribution of uncertainties of individual input data was estimated.
AB - A one-dimensional boundary layer model was used to study the effects of uncertain input data on 2-m temperature and 10-m wind. Based on a very large number of numerical results, it can be demonstrated, that even a small degree of ambiguity can have significant implications, especially for temperature. In 50 % of all 6,000 simulations for flat terrain and randomly chosen sets of input data within narrow limits, temperature uncertainty was more than 2 K, and in 14 % of all cases more than 4 K, with a maximum of 9 K. Effect on wind speed is much smaller and depends mostly on surface roughness length. For a forest scenario, the results for temperature of 18,000 simulations are in the same order, with 25 % of the ensemble show temperature uncertainties of more than 2 K, and 6 % of more than 4 K, while wind speed above a forest is much more affected than for the bare soil case. In addition, the contribution of uncertainties of individual input data was estimated.
KW - Boundary layer model
KW - Flat terrain
KW - Forest
KW - Input data uncertainties
KW - Sensitivity study
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85073688835&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1127/metz/2019/0952
DO - 10.1127/metz/2019/0952
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85073688835
VL - 28
SP - 225
EP - 234
JO - Meteorologische Zeitschrift
JF - Meteorologische Zeitschrift
SN - 0941-2948
IS - 3
ER -