Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 949-971 |
| Number of pages | 23 |
| Journal | Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy |
| Volume | 28 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| Early online date | 10 Feb 2021 |
| Publication status | Published - Mar 2023 |
Abstract
In this paper, we examined the asymmetric and symmetric effects of real exchange rate on bilateral trade balance between the United States and Vietnam at the industry level by employing both ARDL and NARDL models. We found that (i) only symmetric real exchange rate is statistically significant in explaining the total trade balance between the US and Vietnam in the long-run at the 10% statistical significant level; (ii) the effect at the industry level is mixed and dependent on product category; and (iii) the asymmetric effects are found in both short-run and long-run in 29 industries which account for 69% of the total industry. These findings suggest that Vietnam could import more commodities with a high import weight such as agricultural products, cork and wood, textile fiber, chemicals, and machinery products to reduce the US’s trade deficit.
Keywords
- ARDL, bilateral trade balance, Exchange rate, NARDL
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Social Sciences(all)
- Geography, Planning and Development
- Social Sciences(all)
- Development
- Social Sciences(all)
- Political Science and International Relations
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In: Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Vol. 28, No. 3, 03.2023, p. 949-971.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - On the (a)symmetric effects of real exchange rate on trade flows
T2 - new evidence from US–Vietnam trade balance at the industry level
AU - Ho, Sy Hoa
AU - Nguyen, Trung Thanh
AU - To-The, Nguyen
N1 - Funding Information: We are grateful to an anonymous referee for her/his useful comments and suggestions. All errors or omissions are ours. Sy-Hoa Ho gratefully acknowledges financial support of the National Foundation for Science and Technology Development of Vietnam (NAFOSTED).
PY - 2023/3
Y1 - 2023/3
N2 - In this paper, we examined the asymmetric and symmetric effects of real exchange rate on bilateral trade balance between the United States and Vietnam at the industry level by employing both ARDL and NARDL models. We found that (i) only symmetric real exchange rate is statistically significant in explaining the total trade balance between the US and Vietnam in the long-run at the 10% statistical significant level; (ii) the effect at the industry level is mixed and dependent on product category; and (iii) the asymmetric effects are found in both short-run and long-run in 29 industries which account for 69% of the total industry. These findings suggest that Vietnam could import more commodities with a high import weight such as agricultural products, cork and wood, textile fiber, chemicals, and machinery products to reduce the US’s trade deficit.
AB - In this paper, we examined the asymmetric and symmetric effects of real exchange rate on bilateral trade balance between the United States and Vietnam at the industry level by employing both ARDL and NARDL models. We found that (i) only symmetric real exchange rate is statistically significant in explaining the total trade balance between the US and Vietnam in the long-run at the 10% statistical significant level; (ii) the effect at the industry level is mixed and dependent on product category; and (iii) the asymmetric effects are found in both short-run and long-run in 29 industries which account for 69% of the total industry. These findings suggest that Vietnam could import more commodities with a high import weight such as agricultural products, cork and wood, textile fiber, chemicals, and machinery products to reduce the US’s trade deficit.
KW - ARDL
KW - bilateral trade balance
KW - Exchange rate
KW - NARDL
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85101093571&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1080/13547860.2021.1884346
DO - 10.1080/13547860.2021.1884346
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85101093571
VL - 28
SP - 949
EP - 971
JO - Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy
JF - Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy
SN - 1354-7860
IS - 3
ER -