Nonlinear time series analysis: Towards an effective forecast of rogue waves

Research output: Chapter in book/report/conference proceedingConference contributionResearchpeer review

Authors

External Research Organisations

  • Max Born Institute for Nonlinear Optics and Short Pulse Spectroscopy im Forschungsbund Berlin e.V. (MBI)
  • Weierstrass Institute for Applied Analysis and Stochastics (WIAS) Weierstraß-Institut für Angewandte Analysis und Stochastik (WIAS) Leibniz-Institute in Forschungsverbund Berlin e. V.
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Details

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationReal-Time Measurements, Rogue Events, and Emerging Applications
EditorsDaniel R. Solli, Daniel R. Solli, John M. Dudley, Bahram Jalali, Sergei K. Turitsyn
PublisherSPIE
ISBN (electronic)9781628419672
Publication statusPublished - 9 Mar 2016
EventReal-Time Measurements, Rogue Events, and Emerging Applications - San Francisco, United States
Duration: 15 Feb 201616 Feb 2016

Publication series

NameProceedings of SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering
Volume9732
ISSN (Print)0277-786X
ISSN (electronic)1996-756X

Abstract

Rogue waves are extremely large waves that exceed any expectation based on long-term observation and Gaussian statistics. Ocean rogue waves exceed the significant wave height in the ocean by a factor 2. Similar phenomena have been observed in a multiplicity of optical systems. While the optical systems show a much higher frequency of rogue events than the ocean, it appears nevertheless questionable what conclusions can be drawn for the prediction of ocean rogue waves. Here we tackle the problem from a different perspective and analyze the predictability of rogue events in two optical systems as well as in the ocean using nonlinear time-series analysis. Our analysis is exclusively based on experimental data. The results appear rather surprising as the optical rogue wave scenario of fiber-based supercontinuum generation does not allow any prediction whereas real ocean rogue waves and a multifilament scenario do bear a considerable amount of determinism, which allows, at least in principle, the prediction of extreme events. It becomes further clear that there exist two fundamentally different types of rogue-wave supporting systems. One class of rogue waves is obviously seeded by quantum fluctuations whereas in the other class, linear random interference of waves seems to prevail.

Keywords

    extreme events, Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm, nonlinear time series analysis, Rogue waves

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Cite this

Nonlinear time series analysis: Towards an effective forecast of rogue waves. / Steinmeyer, Günter; Birkholz, Simon; Brée, Carsten et al.
Real-Time Measurements, Rogue Events, and Emerging Applications. ed. / Daniel R. Solli; Daniel R. Solli; John M. Dudley; Bahram Jalali; Sergei K. Turitsyn. SPIE, 2016. 973205 (Proceedings of SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering; Vol. 9732).

Research output: Chapter in book/report/conference proceedingConference contributionResearchpeer review

Steinmeyer, G, Birkholz, S, Brée, C & Demircan, A 2016, Nonlinear time series analysis: Towards an effective forecast of rogue waves. in DR Solli, DR Solli, JM Dudley, B Jalali & SK Turitsyn (eds), Real-Time Measurements, Rogue Events, and Emerging Applications., 973205, Proceedings of SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering, vol. 9732, SPIE, Real-Time Measurements, Rogue Events, and Emerging Applications, San Francisco, United States, 15 Feb 2016. https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2208251
Steinmeyer, G., Birkholz, S., Brée, C., & Demircan, A. (2016). Nonlinear time series analysis: Towards an effective forecast of rogue waves. In D. R. Solli, D. R. Solli, J. M. Dudley, B. Jalali, & S. K. Turitsyn (Eds.), Real-Time Measurements, Rogue Events, and Emerging Applications Article 973205 (Proceedings of SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering; Vol. 9732). SPIE. https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2208251
Steinmeyer G, Birkholz S, Brée C, Demircan A. Nonlinear time series analysis: Towards an effective forecast of rogue waves. In Solli DR, Solli DR, Dudley JM, Jalali B, Turitsyn SK, editors, Real-Time Measurements, Rogue Events, and Emerging Applications. SPIE. 2016. 973205. (Proceedings of SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering). doi: 10.1117/12.2208251
Steinmeyer, Günter ; Birkholz, Simon ; Brée, Carsten et al. / Nonlinear time series analysis : Towards an effective forecast of rogue waves. Real-Time Measurements, Rogue Events, and Emerging Applications. editor / Daniel R. Solli ; Daniel R. Solli ; John M. Dudley ; Bahram Jalali ; Sergei K. Turitsyn. SPIE, 2016. (Proceedings of SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering).
Download
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