Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 31-42 |
| Number of pages | 12 |
| Journal | Agricultural systems |
| Volume | 100 |
| Issue number | 1-3 |
| Early online date | 20 Jan 2009 |
| Publication status | Published - Apr 2009 |
Abstract
Assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture is a new challenge for quantitative model-based policy analysis. The impact of climate change will vary strongly across regions depending on pre-existing climatic, agronomic, and political conditions. Most of the present modeling approaches, which aim to analyze the impact of global change on agriculture, deliver aggregated results both with regard to content and spatial resolution. To deliver results with a higher spatial resolution and to produce a more detailed picture of agricultural production, the county-based agro-economic model known as ACRE-Danube was developed. The German and Austrian part of the Upper Danube basin, a study area with great diversity in agricultural landscapes and climatic conditions, was chosen for study. For the analysis, two scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change were derived. The first and more economically and globally oriented scenario, termed "Full Liberalization," included significant temperature increases. The second and more environmentally and regionally oriented "Full Protection" scenario included a moderate temperature increase. Both scenarios produce different results regarding agricultural income and land use. While the developments in the Full Protection scenario are small, the Full Liberalization scenario yields extreme regional changes in agricultural income, an increase in cereal production and extensive grassland farming.
Keywords
- Agricultural production, Global change, Global change scenarios, Regional optimization model
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
- Animal Science and Zoology
- Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
- Agronomy and Crop Science
Sustainable Development Goals
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In: Agricultural systems, Vol. 100, No. 1-3, 04.2009, p. 31-42.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Modeling the impact of global change on regional agricultural land use through an activity-based non-linear programming approach
AU - Henseler, Martin
AU - Wirsig, Alexander
AU - Herrmann, Sylvia
AU - Krimly, Tatjana
AU - Dabbert, Stephan
N1 - Funding Information: GLOWA-Danube (Global Change in the Hydrological Cycle) is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF): www.glowa-danube.de . Copyright: Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2009/4
Y1 - 2009/4
N2 - Assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture is a new challenge for quantitative model-based policy analysis. The impact of climate change will vary strongly across regions depending on pre-existing climatic, agronomic, and political conditions. Most of the present modeling approaches, which aim to analyze the impact of global change on agriculture, deliver aggregated results both with regard to content and spatial resolution. To deliver results with a higher spatial resolution and to produce a more detailed picture of agricultural production, the county-based agro-economic model known as ACRE-Danube was developed. The German and Austrian part of the Upper Danube basin, a study area with great diversity in agricultural landscapes and climatic conditions, was chosen for study. For the analysis, two scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change were derived. The first and more economically and globally oriented scenario, termed "Full Liberalization," included significant temperature increases. The second and more environmentally and regionally oriented "Full Protection" scenario included a moderate temperature increase. Both scenarios produce different results regarding agricultural income and land use. While the developments in the Full Protection scenario are small, the Full Liberalization scenario yields extreme regional changes in agricultural income, an increase in cereal production and extensive grassland farming.
AB - Assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture is a new challenge for quantitative model-based policy analysis. The impact of climate change will vary strongly across regions depending on pre-existing climatic, agronomic, and political conditions. Most of the present modeling approaches, which aim to analyze the impact of global change on agriculture, deliver aggregated results both with regard to content and spatial resolution. To deliver results with a higher spatial resolution and to produce a more detailed picture of agricultural production, the county-based agro-economic model known as ACRE-Danube was developed. The German and Austrian part of the Upper Danube basin, a study area with great diversity in agricultural landscapes and climatic conditions, was chosen for study. For the analysis, two scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change were derived. The first and more economically and globally oriented scenario, termed "Full Liberalization," included significant temperature increases. The second and more environmentally and regionally oriented "Full Protection" scenario included a moderate temperature increase. Both scenarios produce different results regarding agricultural income and land use. While the developments in the Full Protection scenario are small, the Full Liberalization scenario yields extreme regional changes in agricultural income, an increase in cereal production and extensive grassland farming.
KW - Agricultural production
KW - Global change
KW - Global change scenarios
KW - Regional optimization model
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=63549133636&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.agsy.2008.12.002
DO - 10.1016/j.agsy.2008.12.002
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:63549133636
VL - 100
SP - 31
EP - 42
JO - Agricultural systems
JF - Agricultural systems
SN - 0308-521X
IS - 1-3
ER -