Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Journal | ASTIN Bulletin |
| Volume | 54 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| Early online date | 10 Jan 2024 |
| Publication status | Published - Jan 2024 |
Abstract
The paper develops a methodology to enable microscopic models of transportation systems to be accessible for a statistical study of traffic accidents. Our approach is intended to permit an understanding not only of historical losses but also of incidents that may occur in altered, potential future systems. Through such a counterfactual analysis, it is possible, from an insurance, but also from an engineering perspective, to assess the impact of changes in the design of vehicles and transport systems in terms of their impact on road safety and functionality. Structurally, we characterize the total loss distribution approximatively as a mean-variance mixture. This also yields valuation procedures that can be used instead of Monte Carlo simulation. Specifically, we construct an implementation based on the open-source traffic simulator SUMO and illustrate the potential of the approach in counterfactual case studies.
Keywords
- car-following models, digital twins, insurance premiums, Microscopic traffic models, SUMO
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Business, Management and Accounting(all)
- Accounting
- Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all)
- Finance
- Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all)
- Economics and Econometrics
Sustainable Development Goals
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In: ASTIN Bulletin, Vol. 54, No. 1, 01.2024.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Microscopic traffic models, accidents, and insurance losses
AU - Kim, Sojung
AU - Kleiber, Marcel
AU - Weber, Stefan
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of The International Actuarial Association.
PY - 2024/1
Y1 - 2024/1
N2 - The paper develops a methodology to enable microscopic models of transportation systems to be accessible for a statistical study of traffic accidents. Our approach is intended to permit an understanding not only of historical losses but also of incidents that may occur in altered, potential future systems. Through such a counterfactual analysis, it is possible, from an insurance, but also from an engineering perspective, to assess the impact of changes in the design of vehicles and transport systems in terms of their impact on road safety and functionality. Structurally, we characterize the total loss distribution approximatively as a mean-variance mixture. This also yields valuation procedures that can be used instead of Monte Carlo simulation. Specifically, we construct an implementation based on the open-source traffic simulator SUMO and illustrate the potential of the approach in counterfactual case studies.
AB - The paper develops a methodology to enable microscopic models of transportation systems to be accessible for a statistical study of traffic accidents. Our approach is intended to permit an understanding not only of historical losses but also of incidents that may occur in altered, potential future systems. Through such a counterfactual analysis, it is possible, from an insurance, but also from an engineering perspective, to assess the impact of changes in the design of vehicles and transport systems in terms of their impact on road safety and functionality. Structurally, we characterize the total loss distribution approximatively as a mean-variance mixture. This also yields valuation procedures that can be used instead of Monte Carlo simulation. Specifically, we construct an implementation based on the open-source traffic simulator SUMO and illustrate the potential of the approach in counterfactual case studies.
KW - car-following models
KW - digital twins
KW - insurance premiums
KW - Microscopic traffic models
KW - SUMO
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85183367667&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.48550/arXiv.2208.12530
DO - 10.48550/arXiv.2208.12530
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85183367667
VL - 54
JO - ASTIN Bulletin
JF - ASTIN Bulletin
SN - 0515-0361
IS - 1
ER -