TY - JOUR

T1 - Klimabedingte Änderung von Hochwasserabflüssen im Aller-Leine-Einzugsgebiet

T2 - eine Fallstudie mit HBV-IWW

AU - Wallner, Markus

AU - Haberlandt, Uwe

PY - 2015/1/1

Y1 - 2015/1/1

N2 - Analysing extreme runof events in climate impact studies is indispensable for future water management planning. However, the genesis of floods is a highly dynamic process, whose simulation involves major uncertainties, especially in climate impact studies. These uncertainties result from: (I) Biased climate model data serving as input data; (II) The short length of high-resolution records for the calibration of the hydrological model; (III) Diferent data types used for calibrating (generally observations) and applying (generally climate model data); and the (4) hydrological models. In this case study, a calibration strategy is presented which enables a more reliable estimation of flood frequency curves in climate impact studies. The strategy allows direct calibration of the hydrological model by means of the subsequently applied climate model input data. The investigation was carried out in 41 catchments of the Aller-Leine river basin. Apart from hourly observed data for the period 2003 to 2008, two runs of the regional climate model REMO (BFG and UBA) were additionally used as input data for the hydrological model. The results have shown that: (I) The presented calibration strategy allows in most cases a good (re-) calibration of the hydrological model; (II) According to the status quo, floods will, on average, increase in the Aller-Leine river basin; (III) The increase in floods notably applies to the remote future (2071-2100); (IV) The REMO runs BFG and UBA partially display differing change signals. Due to the great uncertainties inherent in the climate model data, it is recommended to use a larger ensemble of global and regional climate models and to apply several hydrological models, given that simulating extreme events is a major challenge both for models and modellers.

AB - Analysing extreme runof events in climate impact studies is indispensable for future water management planning. However, the genesis of floods is a highly dynamic process, whose simulation involves major uncertainties, especially in climate impact studies. These uncertainties result from: (I) Biased climate model data serving as input data; (II) The short length of high-resolution records for the calibration of the hydrological model; (III) Diferent data types used for calibrating (generally observations) and applying (generally climate model data); and the (4) hydrological models. In this case study, a calibration strategy is presented which enables a more reliable estimation of flood frequency curves in climate impact studies. The strategy allows direct calibration of the hydrological model by means of the subsequently applied climate model input data. The investigation was carried out in 41 catchments of the Aller-Leine river basin. Apart from hourly observed data for the period 2003 to 2008, two runs of the regional climate model REMO (BFG and UBA) were additionally used as input data for the hydrological model. The results have shown that: (I) The presented calibration strategy allows in most cases a good (re-) calibration of the hydrological model; (II) According to the status quo, floods will, on average, increase in the Aller-Leine river basin; (III) The increase in floods notably applies to the remote future (2071-2100); (IV) The REMO runs BFG and UBA partially display differing change signals. Due to the great uncertainties inherent in the climate model data, it is recommended to use a larger ensemble of global and regional climate models and to apply several hydrological models, given that simulating extreme events is a major challenge both for models and modellers.

KW - Climate change

KW - Flood frequency

KW - Hydrological modelling

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84969799427&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.5675/HyWa_2015,4_4

DO - 10.5675/HyWa_2015,4_4

M3 - Artikel

AN - SCOPUS:84969799427

VL - 59

SP - 174

EP - 183

JO - Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung

JF - Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung

SN - 1439-1783

IS - 4

ER -