Details
| Translated title of the contribution | Hysteria and Hysteresis. Asylum Migration and the Success of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party |
|---|---|
| Original language | German |
| Pages (from-to) | 455-470 |
| Number of pages | 16 |
| Journal | Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie |
| Volume | 72 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| Publication status | Published - 1 Sept 2020 |
Abstract
The number of asylum requests made in Germany increased significantly in the years 2015 and 2016. It is largely undisputed that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has benefited politically from this development. It remains unclear, however, whether a temporary increase in the number of asylum applications will increase the electoral chances of the AfD only in the short term (hysteria hypothesis) or in the long term (hysteresis hypothesis). The expectation of a lasting effect is justified by the fact that an asylum application ultimately indicates the immigration of an asylum-seeker into the territory of the Federal Republic of Germany and suggests that this person is likely to remain there. The hysteria and hysteresis hypotheses are empirically examined based on time-series data for the period April 2013 to December 2019. Both hypotheses are confirmed. The AfD benefits in the short term from an increase in the number of asylum applications. At the same time, however, AfD support also depends on the number of people currently seeking protection in Germany. The effect of the number of asylum seekers is stronger than the effect of the current number of asylum applications.
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Psychology(all)
- Social Psychology
- Social Sciences(all)
- Sociology and Political Science
Sustainable Development Goals
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In: Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie, Vol. 72, No. 3, 01.09.2020, p. 455-470.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Hysterie und Hysterese
T2 - Die Asylmigration und der Erfolg der Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)
AU - Klein, Markus
AU - Springer, Frederik
N1 - Funding Information: Wir danken den drei anonymen Gutachtern sowie den Herausgebern der KZfSS für wertvolle Hinweise zur Überarbeitung des Beitrags.
PY - 2020/9/1
Y1 - 2020/9/1
N2 - The number of asylum requests made in Germany increased significantly in the years 2015 and 2016. It is largely undisputed that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has benefited politically from this development. It remains unclear, however, whether a temporary increase in the number of asylum applications will increase the electoral chances of the AfD only in the short term (hysteria hypothesis) or in the long term (hysteresis hypothesis). The expectation of a lasting effect is justified by the fact that an asylum application ultimately indicates the immigration of an asylum-seeker into the territory of the Federal Republic of Germany and suggests that this person is likely to remain there. The hysteria and hysteresis hypotheses are empirically examined based on time-series data for the period April 2013 to December 2019. Both hypotheses are confirmed. The AfD benefits in the short term from an increase in the number of asylum applications. At the same time, however, AfD support also depends on the number of people currently seeking protection in Germany. The effect of the number of asylum seekers is stronger than the effect of the current number of asylum applications.
AB - The number of asylum requests made in Germany increased significantly in the years 2015 and 2016. It is largely undisputed that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has benefited politically from this development. It remains unclear, however, whether a temporary increase in the number of asylum applications will increase the electoral chances of the AfD only in the short term (hysteria hypothesis) or in the long term (hysteresis hypothesis). The expectation of a lasting effect is justified by the fact that an asylum application ultimately indicates the immigration of an asylum-seeker into the territory of the Federal Republic of Germany and suggests that this person is likely to remain there. The hysteria and hysteresis hypotheses are empirically examined based on time-series data for the period April 2013 to December 2019. Both hypotheses are confirmed. The AfD benefits in the short term from an increase in the number of asylum applications. At the same time, however, AfD support also depends on the number of people currently seeking protection in Germany. The effect of the number of asylum seekers is stronger than the effect of the current number of asylum applications.
KW - Asylum applications
KW - Migration
KW - Political barometer
KW - Protection seekers
KW - Right-wing populism
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85092149387&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s11577-020-00710-2
DO - 10.1007/s11577-020-00710-2
M3 - Artikel
AN - SCOPUS:85092149387
VL - 72
SP - 455
EP - 470
JO - Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie
JF - Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie
SN - 0023-2653
IS - 3
ER -