Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 129-142 |
| Number of pages | 14 |
| Journal | Regional environmental change |
| Volume | 18 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| Publication status | Published - 25 Oct 2017 |
Abstract
The calculation of robust estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions due to agriculture is essential to support the framing of the Brazilian climate change mitigation policy. Information on the future development of land use and land cover change (LULCC) under the combination of various driving factors operating at different spatial scale levels, e.g., local land use policy and global demands for agricultural commodities, is required. The spatially explicit land use model, LandSHIFT, was applied to calculate a set of high-resolution land use scenarios for Southern Amazonia. The time frame of the analysis was 2010–2030. Based on the generated maps, emission coefficients were applied to calculate annual N2O, CH4, and CO2 emissions from agricultural soils (croplands and pastures). The results indicate that future land use pattern and the resultant greenhouse gas emissions in Southern Amazonia will be strongly determined by global and regional demands for agricultural commodities, as well as by the level of intensification of agriculture and the implementation of conservation policies.
Keywords
- Agriculture, Greenhouse gas emissions, Land use and land cover change, Scenarios, Southern Amazonia
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Environmental Science(all)
- Global and Planetary Change
Sustainable Development Goals
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In: Regional environmental change, Vol. 18, No. 1, 25.10.2017, p. 129-142.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Future land use and land cover in Southern Amazonia and resulting greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural soils
AU - Göpel, Jan
AU - Schüngel, Jan
AU - Schaldach, Rüdiger
AU - Meurer, Katharina H.E.
AU - Jungkunst, Hermann F.
AU - Franko, Uwe
AU - Boy, Jens
AU - Strey, Robert
AU - Strey, Simone
AU - Guggenberger, Georg
AU - Hampf, Anna
AU - Parker, Phillip
N1 - Funding information: This study has been conducted as part of the Carbiocial project (funding reference number 01LL0902A-01LL0902N) commissioned by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. We would like to thank the entire project team for their contribution to this research.
PY - 2017/10/25
Y1 - 2017/10/25
N2 - The calculation of robust estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions due to agriculture is essential to support the framing of the Brazilian climate change mitigation policy. Information on the future development of land use and land cover change (LULCC) under the combination of various driving factors operating at different spatial scale levels, e.g., local land use policy and global demands for agricultural commodities, is required. The spatially explicit land use model, LandSHIFT, was applied to calculate a set of high-resolution land use scenarios for Southern Amazonia. The time frame of the analysis was 2010–2030. Based on the generated maps, emission coefficients were applied to calculate annual N2O, CH4, and CO2 emissions from agricultural soils (croplands and pastures). The results indicate that future land use pattern and the resultant greenhouse gas emissions in Southern Amazonia will be strongly determined by global and regional demands for agricultural commodities, as well as by the level of intensification of agriculture and the implementation of conservation policies.
AB - The calculation of robust estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions due to agriculture is essential to support the framing of the Brazilian climate change mitigation policy. Information on the future development of land use and land cover change (LULCC) under the combination of various driving factors operating at different spatial scale levels, e.g., local land use policy and global demands for agricultural commodities, is required. The spatially explicit land use model, LandSHIFT, was applied to calculate a set of high-resolution land use scenarios for Southern Amazonia. The time frame of the analysis was 2010–2030. Based on the generated maps, emission coefficients were applied to calculate annual N2O, CH4, and CO2 emissions from agricultural soils (croplands and pastures). The results indicate that future land use pattern and the resultant greenhouse gas emissions in Southern Amazonia will be strongly determined by global and regional demands for agricultural commodities, as well as by the level of intensification of agriculture and the implementation of conservation policies.
KW - Agriculture
KW - Greenhouse gas emissions
KW - Land use and land cover change
KW - Scenarios
KW - Southern Amazonia
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85030567958&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s10113-017-1235-0
DO - 10.1007/s10113-017-1235-0
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85030567958
VL - 18
SP - 129
EP - 142
JO - Regional environmental change
JF - Regional environmental change
SN - 1436-3798
IS - 1
ER -