Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 244-261 |
| Number of pages | 18 |
| Journal | Journal of applied econometrics |
| Volume | 36 |
| Issue number | 2 |
| Early online date | 31 Jul 2020 |
| Publication status | Published - 17 Mar 2021 |
Abstract
This paper studies the effects of bilateral foreign aid on conflict escalation and deescalation. First, we develop a new ordinal measure capturing the two-sided and multifaceted nature of conflict. Second, we propose a dynamic ordered probit estimator that allows for unobserved heterogeneity and corrects for endogeneity. Third, we identify the causal effect of foreign aid on conflict by predicting bilateral aid flows based on electoral outcomes of donor countries which are exogenous to recipients. Receiving bilateral aid raises the chances of escalating from small conflict to armed conflict, but we find little evidence that aid ignites conflict in truly peaceful countries.
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Social Sciences(all)
- Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
- Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all)
- Economics and Econometrics
Sustainable Development Goals
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In: Journal of applied econometrics, Vol. 36, No. 2, 17.03.2021, p. 244-261.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Fueling conflict?
T2 - (De)escalation and bilateral aid
AU - Bluhm, Richard
AU - Gassebner, Martin
AU - Langlotz, Sarah
AU - Schaudt, Paul
N1 - Funding Information: Open access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL.
PY - 2021/3/17
Y1 - 2021/3/17
N2 - This paper studies the effects of bilateral foreign aid on conflict escalation and deescalation. First, we develop a new ordinal measure capturing the two-sided and multifaceted nature of conflict. Second, we propose a dynamic ordered probit estimator that allows for unobserved heterogeneity and corrects for endogeneity. Third, we identify the causal effect of foreign aid on conflict by predicting bilateral aid flows based on electoral outcomes of donor countries which are exogenous to recipients. Receiving bilateral aid raises the chances of escalating from small conflict to armed conflict, but we find little evidence that aid ignites conflict in truly peaceful countries.
AB - This paper studies the effects of bilateral foreign aid on conflict escalation and deescalation. First, we develop a new ordinal measure capturing the two-sided and multifaceted nature of conflict. Second, we propose a dynamic ordered probit estimator that allows for unobserved heterogeneity and corrects for endogeneity. Third, we identify the causal effect of foreign aid on conflict by predicting bilateral aid flows based on electoral outcomes of donor countries which are exogenous to recipients. Receiving bilateral aid raises the chances of escalating from small conflict to armed conflict, but we find little evidence that aid ignites conflict in truly peaceful countries.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85090059312&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1002/jae.2797
DO - 10.1002/jae.2797
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85090059312
VL - 36
SP - 244
EP - 261
JO - Journal of applied econometrics
JF - Journal of applied econometrics
SN - 0883-7252
IS - 2
ER -