Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | 33rd Annual European Simulation and Modelling Conference 2019, ESM 2019 |
| Editors | Pilar Fuster-Parra, Oscar Valero Sierra |
| Pages | 190-194 |
| Number of pages | 5 |
| ISBN (electronic) | 9789492859099 |
| Publication status | Published - 2019 |
| Event | 33rd Annual European Simulation and Modelling Conference, ESM 2019 - Plama de Mallorca, Spain Duration: 28 Oct 2019 → 30 Oct 2019 |
Abstract
Pests in Greenhouses can cause major economic damage. A modern method of minimizing this damage is integrated pest management. In this process various chemical and biological pest control methods are combined and their use is supported by a decision support system. These decision support systems are usually based on simulations of the future development of pests and the effects of control measures. A frequently used model for the simulation of insect populations is the escalator boxcar train model, a continuous simulation model based on partial differential equations. In this work, discrete population-based simulation models have been developed as an alternative. A time-discrete and a discrete event simulation model have been implemented for the simulation of the population development of an insect species and for the predator/prey interaction of two insect species. The population development of the greenhouse whitefly Trialeurodes vaporariorum has been simulated with these simulation models and validated with data from greenhouse experiments. The simulated population developments for the first four weeks are close enough to the experimental data, so that the simulations can be used in the context of a decision support system for the grower. Based on the validated models for the single species, the interaction of the greenhouse whitefly with the parasitic wasp Encarsia formosa has been modeled and simulated. It has been shown that with a suitable selection of parameters the actual population trend can be approximated, so that the algorithms can be used in a decision support system for pro-active organic pest control.
Keywords
- Agriculture, Decision Support System, Model Evaluation, Stochastic, System Analysis
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Mathematics(all)
- Modelling and Simulation
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33rd Annual European Simulation and Modelling Conference 2019, ESM 2019. ed. / Pilar Fuster-Parra; Oscar Valero Sierra. 2019. p. 190-194.
Research output: Chapter in book/report/conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Research › peer review
}
TY - GEN
T1 - Evaluation of algorithms for forecasting of insect populations
AU - Becker, Matthias
N1 - Funding information: The project is supported by funds of the Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) based on a decision of the Parliament of the Federal Republic of Germany via the Federal Office for Agriculture and Food (BLE) under the innovation support programme.
PY - 2019
Y1 - 2019
N2 - Pests in Greenhouses can cause major economic damage. A modern method of minimizing this damage is integrated pest management. In this process various chemical and biological pest control methods are combined and their use is supported by a decision support system. These decision support systems are usually based on simulations of the future development of pests and the effects of control measures. A frequently used model for the simulation of insect populations is the escalator boxcar train model, a continuous simulation model based on partial differential equations. In this work, discrete population-based simulation models have been developed as an alternative. A time-discrete and a discrete event simulation model have been implemented for the simulation of the population development of an insect species and for the predator/prey interaction of two insect species. The population development of the greenhouse whitefly Trialeurodes vaporariorum has been simulated with these simulation models and validated with data from greenhouse experiments. The simulated population developments for the first four weeks are close enough to the experimental data, so that the simulations can be used in the context of a decision support system for the grower. Based on the validated models for the single species, the interaction of the greenhouse whitefly with the parasitic wasp Encarsia formosa has been modeled and simulated. It has been shown that with a suitable selection of parameters the actual population trend can be approximated, so that the algorithms can be used in a decision support system for pro-active organic pest control.
AB - Pests in Greenhouses can cause major economic damage. A modern method of minimizing this damage is integrated pest management. In this process various chemical and biological pest control methods are combined and their use is supported by a decision support system. These decision support systems are usually based on simulations of the future development of pests and the effects of control measures. A frequently used model for the simulation of insect populations is the escalator boxcar train model, a continuous simulation model based on partial differential equations. In this work, discrete population-based simulation models have been developed as an alternative. A time-discrete and a discrete event simulation model have been implemented for the simulation of the population development of an insect species and for the predator/prey interaction of two insect species. The population development of the greenhouse whitefly Trialeurodes vaporariorum has been simulated with these simulation models and validated with data from greenhouse experiments. The simulated population developments for the first four weeks are close enough to the experimental data, so that the simulations can be used in the context of a decision support system for the grower. Based on the validated models for the single species, the interaction of the greenhouse whitefly with the parasitic wasp Encarsia formosa has been modeled and simulated. It has been shown that with a suitable selection of parameters the actual population trend can be approximated, so that the algorithms can be used in a decision support system for pro-active organic pest control.
KW - Agriculture
KW - Decision Support System
KW - Model Evaluation
KW - Stochastic
KW - System Analysis
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85076229211&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85076229211
SP - 190
EP - 194
BT - 33rd Annual European Simulation and Modelling Conference 2019, ESM 2019
A2 - Fuster-Parra, Pilar
A2 - Sierra, Oscar Valero
T2 - 33rd Annual European Simulation and Modelling Conference, ESM 2019
Y2 - 28 October 2019 through 30 October 2019
ER -