Details
| Translated title of the contribution | Ensemble forecasts for operational flood management |
|---|---|
| Original language | German |
| Pages (from-to) | 140-145 |
| Number of pages | 6 |
| Journal | Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung |
| Volume | 53 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| Publication status | Published - Jun 2009 |
Abstract
Ensemble forecasts frame the uncertainties of the potential future developments in the hydro-meteorological situation. A probabilistic evaluation can be used to communicate forecast uncertainty to decision makers. Here, an ensemble system for flood forecasting is presented, which combines forecasts from the European COSMO-LEPS, SRNWP-PEPS, and COSMO-DE prediction systems. From these meteorological forecasts, flood forecasts are simulated by rainfall-runoff-models. Forecasts of flood events in the River Mulde basin from the years 2002-2008 were evaluated. Ensembles can improve the assessment of forecast uncertainty. Furthermore, the probabilistic forecast can be updated with new information from short-range forecast systems or by assimilation of measured data.
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Environmental Science(all)
- Water Science and Technology
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In: Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung, Vol. 53, No. 3, 06.2009, p. 140-145.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Ensemblevorhersagen im operationellen hochwassermanagement
AU - Dietrich, Jörg
AU - Schumann, Andreas
AU - Pfützner, Bernd
AU - Walther, Jörg
AU - Wang, Yan
AU - Denhard, Michael
AU - Büttner, Uwe
PY - 2009/6
Y1 - 2009/6
N2 - Ensemble forecasts frame the uncertainties of the potential future developments in the hydro-meteorological situation. A probabilistic evaluation can be used to communicate forecast uncertainty to decision makers. Here, an ensemble system for flood forecasting is presented, which combines forecasts from the European COSMO-LEPS, SRNWP-PEPS, and COSMO-DE prediction systems. From these meteorological forecasts, flood forecasts are simulated by rainfall-runoff-models. Forecasts of flood events in the River Mulde basin from the years 2002-2008 were evaluated. Ensembles can improve the assessment of forecast uncertainty. Furthermore, the probabilistic forecast can be updated with new information from short-range forecast systems or by assimilation of measured data.
AB - Ensemble forecasts frame the uncertainties of the potential future developments in the hydro-meteorological situation. A probabilistic evaluation can be used to communicate forecast uncertainty to decision makers. Here, an ensemble system for flood forecasting is presented, which combines forecasts from the European COSMO-LEPS, SRNWP-PEPS, and COSMO-DE prediction systems. From these meteorological forecasts, flood forecasts are simulated by rainfall-runoff-models. Forecasts of flood events in the River Mulde basin from the years 2002-2008 were evaluated. Ensembles can improve the assessment of forecast uncertainty. Furthermore, the probabilistic forecast can be updated with new information from short-range forecast systems or by assimilation of measured data.
KW - Ensemble forecast
KW - Flood forecast
KW - Flood management system
KW - Uncertainty analysis
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=68149084627&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - Artikel
AN - SCOPUS:68149084627
VL - 53
SP - 140
EP - 145
JO - Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung
JF - Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung
SN - 1439-1783
IS - 3
ER -