Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 107972 |
| Journal | Reliability engineering & system safety |
| Volume | 216 |
| Early online date | 26 Aug 2021 |
| Publication status | Published - Dec 2021 |
Abstract
In this work, the reliability of complex systems under consideration of imprecision is addressed. By joining two methods coming from different fields, namely, structural reliability and system reliability, a novel methodology is derived. The concepts of survival signature, fuzzy probability theory and the two versions of non-intrusive stochastic simulation (NISS) methods are adapted and merged, providing an efficient approach to quantify the reliability of complex systems taking into account the whole uncertainty spectrum. The new approach combines both of the advantageous characteristics of its two original components: 1. a significant reduction of the computational effort due to the separation property of the survival signature, i.e., once the system structure has been computed, any possible characterization of the probabilistic part can be tested with no need to recompute the structure and 2. a dramatically reduced sample size due to the adapted NISS methods, for which only a single stochastic simulation is required, avoiding the double loop simulations traditionally employed. Beyond the merging of the theoretical aspects, the approach is employed to analyze a functional model of an axial compressor and an arbitrary complex system, providing accurate results and demonstrating efficiency and broad applicability.
Keywords
- Complex systems, Epistemic uncertainty, Extended Monte Carlo methods, Fuzzy probabilities, Imprecision, Non-intrusive imprecise stochastic simulation, Reliability analysis, Survival signature, System reliability
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Engineering(all)
- Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
- Engineering(all)
- Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
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In: Reliability engineering & system safety, Vol. 216, 107972, 12.2021.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Efficient reliability analysis of complex systems in consideration of imprecision
AU - Salomon, Julian
AU - Winnewisser, Niklas
AU - Wei, Pengfei
AU - Broggi, Matteo
AU - Beer, Michael
N1 - Funding Information: Funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) SFB 871/3 119193472 , the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC 72171194) and Sino-German Center for Research Promotion (Sino-German Mobility Program) , Project number M-0175.
PY - 2021/12
Y1 - 2021/12
N2 - In this work, the reliability of complex systems under consideration of imprecision is addressed. By joining two methods coming from different fields, namely, structural reliability and system reliability, a novel methodology is derived. The concepts of survival signature, fuzzy probability theory and the two versions of non-intrusive stochastic simulation (NISS) methods are adapted and merged, providing an efficient approach to quantify the reliability of complex systems taking into account the whole uncertainty spectrum. The new approach combines both of the advantageous characteristics of its two original components: 1. a significant reduction of the computational effort due to the separation property of the survival signature, i.e., once the system structure has been computed, any possible characterization of the probabilistic part can be tested with no need to recompute the structure and 2. a dramatically reduced sample size due to the adapted NISS methods, for which only a single stochastic simulation is required, avoiding the double loop simulations traditionally employed. Beyond the merging of the theoretical aspects, the approach is employed to analyze a functional model of an axial compressor and an arbitrary complex system, providing accurate results and demonstrating efficiency and broad applicability.
AB - In this work, the reliability of complex systems under consideration of imprecision is addressed. By joining two methods coming from different fields, namely, structural reliability and system reliability, a novel methodology is derived. The concepts of survival signature, fuzzy probability theory and the two versions of non-intrusive stochastic simulation (NISS) methods are adapted and merged, providing an efficient approach to quantify the reliability of complex systems taking into account the whole uncertainty spectrum. The new approach combines both of the advantageous characteristics of its two original components: 1. a significant reduction of the computational effort due to the separation property of the survival signature, i.e., once the system structure has been computed, any possible characterization of the probabilistic part can be tested with no need to recompute the structure and 2. a dramatically reduced sample size due to the adapted NISS methods, for which only a single stochastic simulation is required, avoiding the double loop simulations traditionally employed. Beyond the merging of the theoretical aspects, the approach is employed to analyze a functional model of an axial compressor and an arbitrary complex system, providing accurate results and demonstrating efficiency and broad applicability.
KW - Complex systems
KW - Epistemic uncertainty
KW - Extended Monte Carlo methods
KW - Fuzzy probabilities
KW - Imprecision
KW - Non-intrusive imprecise stochastic simulation
KW - Reliability analysis
KW - Survival signature
KW - System reliability
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85114502651&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107972
DO - 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107972
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85114502651
VL - 216
JO - Reliability engineering & system safety
JF - Reliability engineering & system safety
SN - 0951-8320
M1 - 107972
ER -