Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 28-35 |
| Number of pages | 8 |
| Journal | Journal of Plant Diseases and Protection |
| Volume | 122 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| Publication status | Published - 2015 |
Abstract
The influence of predicted climatic change on agricultural pest and beneficial insect species is of high importance for growers since increasing temperatures may have a direct impact on the developmental rates of insect populations. These parameters are species-specific and result in variable reactions to climate change, potentially disrupting the synchrony of pest-parasitoid dynamics. This study investigated the effect of increasing temperatures caused by climate change on the population dynamics of the mealy cabbage aphid Brevicoryne brassicae, a worldwide occurring pest species in cruciferous crops, and the endoparasitoid Diaeretiella rapae. For three vegetable growing regions in lower Saxony, the population development of both species was simulated for (1) the near future (2041–2050), (2) the far future (2090–2099) and (3) the reference time period (1991– 2000), using an age structured simulation model including simulated temperature data. An earlier first occurrence of D. rapae in spring compared to B. brassicae was shown, however with no disruption of the synchrony between the two populations. Despite the earlier occurrence and increased population size of D. rapae in future periods, B. brassicae maximum population size also increased. Furthermore, an earlier occurrence of alate aphids during the season resulted from the model, indicating a potential need to adapt pest management.
Keywords
- Age-structured simulation model, Brevicoryne brassicae, Diaeretiella rapae, Pest-parasitoid interactions
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
- Agronomy and Crop Science
- Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
- Plant Science
- Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
- Horticulture
Sustainable Development Goals
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In: Journal of Plant Diseases and Protection, Vol. 122, No. 1, 2015, p. 28-35.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Effects of climate change on pest-parasitoid dynamics
T2 - Development of a simulation model and first results
AU - Gebauer, Konstanze
AU - Hemerik, Lia
AU - Meyhöfer, Rainer
PY - 2015
Y1 - 2015
N2 - The influence of predicted climatic change on agricultural pest and beneficial insect species is of high importance for growers since increasing temperatures may have a direct impact on the developmental rates of insect populations. These parameters are species-specific and result in variable reactions to climate change, potentially disrupting the synchrony of pest-parasitoid dynamics. This study investigated the effect of increasing temperatures caused by climate change on the population dynamics of the mealy cabbage aphid Brevicoryne brassicae, a worldwide occurring pest species in cruciferous crops, and the endoparasitoid Diaeretiella rapae. For three vegetable growing regions in lower Saxony, the population development of both species was simulated for (1) the near future (2041–2050), (2) the far future (2090–2099) and (3) the reference time period (1991– 2000), using an age structured simulation model including simulated temperature data. An earlier first occurrence of D. rapae in spring compared to B. brassicae was shown, however with no disruption of the synchrony between the two populations. Despite the earlier occurrence and increased population size of D. rapae in future periods, B. brassicae maximum population size also increased. Furthermore, an earlier occurrence of alate aphids during the season resulted from the model, indicating a potential need to adapt pest management.
AB - The influence of predicted climatic change on agricultural pest and beneficial insect species is of high importance for growers since increasing temperatures may have a direct impact on the developmental rates of insect populations. These parameters are species-specific and result in variable reactions to climate change, potentially disrupting the synchrony of pest-parasitoid dynamics. This study investigated the effect of increasing temperatures caused by climate change on the population dynamics of the mealy cabbage aphid Brevicoryne brassicae, a worldwide occurring pest species in cruciferous crops, and the endoparasitoid Diaeretiella rapae. For three vegetable growing regions in lower Saxony, the population development of both species was simulated for (1) the near future (2041–2050), (2) the far future (2090–2099) and (3) the reference time period (1991– 2000), using an age structured simulation model including simulated temperature data. An earlier first occurrence of D. rapae in spring compared to B. brassicae was shown, however with no disruption of the synchrony between the two populations. Despite the earlier occurrence and increased population size of D. rapae in future periods, B. brassicae maximum population size also increased. Furthermore, an earlier occurrence of alate aphids during the season resulted from the model, indicating a potential need to adapt pest management.
KW - Age-structured simulation model
KW - Brevicoryne brassicae
KW - Diaeretiella rapae
KW - Pest-parasitoid interactions
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84924357180&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/bf03356527
DO - 10.1007/bf03356527
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84924357180
VL - 122
SP - 28
EP - 35
JO - Journal of Plant Diseases and Protection
JF - Journal of Plant Diseases and Protection
SN - 1861-3829
IS - 1
ER -