TY - JOUR

T1 - Decoupling of impact factors reveals the response of German winter wheat yields to climatic changes

AU - Bönecke, Eric

AU - Breitsameter, Laura

AU - Brüggemann, Nicolas

AU - Chen, Tsu Wei

AU - Feike, Til

AU - Kage, Henning

AU - Kersebaum, Kurt Christian

AU - Piepho, Hans Peter

AU - Stützel, Hartmut

N1 - Funding information: The study was financially supported by the Germany Research Foundation—DFG (Grant number: Stu 127/19-3 and PI 377/20-1). Frank Schaarschmidt (Institute of Biostatistics, Leibniz University Hannover) gave support on the statistical analyses. We also thank Friedrich Laidig (University of Hohenheim) for his statistical advice. The study was financially supported by the Germany Research Foundation—DFG (Grant number: Stu 127/19?3 and PI 377/20?1). Frank Schaarschmidt (Institute of Biostatistics, Leibniz University Hannover) gave support on the statistical analyses. We also thank Friedrich Laidig (University of Hohenheim) for his statistical advice.

PY - 2020/5/21

Y1 - 2020/5/21

N2 - Yield development of agricultural crops over time is not merely the result of genetic and agronomic factors, but also the outcome of a complex interaction between climatic and site-specific soil conditions. However, the influence of past climatic changes on yield trends remains unclear, particularly under consideration of different soil conditions. In this study, we determine the effects of single agrometeorological factors on the evolution of German winter wheat yields between 1958 and 2015 from 298 published nitrogen (N)-fertilization experiments. For this purpose, we separate climatic from genetic and agronomic yield effects using linear mixed effect models and estimate the climatic influence based on a coefficient of determination for these models. We found earlier occurrence of wheat growth stages, and shortened development phases except for the phase of stem elongation. Agrometeorological factors are defined as climate covariates related to the growth of winter wheat. Our results indicate a general and strong effect of agroclimatic changes on yield development, in particular due to increasing mean temperatures and heat stress events during the grain-filling period. Except for heat stress days with more than 31°C, yields at sites with higher yield potential were less prone to adverse weather effects than at sites with lower yield potential. Our data furthermore reveal that a potential yield levelling, as found for many West-European countries, predominantly occurred at sites with relatively low yield potential and about one decade earlier (mid-1980s) compared to averaged yield data for the whole of Germany. Interestingly, effects related to high precipitation events were less relevant than temperature-related effects and became relevant particularly during the vegetative growth phase. Overall, this study emphasizes the sensitivity of yield productivity to past climatic conditions, under consideration of regional differences, and underlines the necessity of finding adaptation strategies for food production under ongoing and expected climate change.

AB - Yield development of agricultural crops over time is not merely the result of genetic and agronomic factors, but also the outcome of a complex interaction between climatic and site-specific soil conditions. However, the influence of past climatic changes on yield trends remains unclear, particularly under consideration of different soil conditions. In this study, we determine the effects of single agrometeorological factors on the evolution of German winter wheat yields between 1958 and 2015 from 298 published nitrogen (N)-fertilization experiments. For this purpose, we separate climatic from genetic and agronomic yield effects using linear mixed effect models and estimate the climatic influence based on a coefficient of determination for these models. We found earlier occurrence of wheat growth stages, and shortened development phases except for the phase of stem elongation. Agrometeorological factors are defined as climate covariates related to the growth of winter wheat. Our results indicate a general and strong effect of agroclimatic changes on yield development, in particular due to increasing mean temperatures and heat stress events during the grain-filling period. Except for heat stress days with more than 31°C, yields at sites with higher yield potential were less prone to adverse weather effects than at sites with lower yield potential. Our data furthermore reveal that a potential yield levelling, as found for many West-European countries, predominantly occurred at sites with relatively low yield potential and about one decade earlier (mid-1980s) compared to averaged yield data for the whole of Germany. Interestingly, effects related to high precipitation events were less relevant than temperature-related effects and became relevant particularly during the vegetative growth phase. Overall, this study emphasizes the sensitivity of yield productivity to past climatic conditions, under consideration of regional differences, and underlines the necessity of finding adaptation strategies for food production under ongoing and expected climate change.

KW - climate change impact

KW - climate trend

KW - long-term yield development

KW - phenology trend

KW - R for mixed effect models

KW - soil yield potential

KW - weather extremes

KW - Winter wheat

KW - Europe

KW - Triticum

KW - Climate Change

KW - Crops, Agricultural

KW - Seasons

KW - Germany

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85083572676&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1111/gcb.15073

DO - 10.1111/gcb.15073

M3 - Article

C2 - 32154969

AN - SCOPUS:85083572676

VL - 26

SP - 3601

EP - 3626

JO - Global Change Biology

JF - Global Change Biology

SN - 1354-1013

IS - 6

ER -