Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | e-proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (ESREL2020 PSAM15) |
| Subtitle of host publication | 01-05 November 2020, Venice, Italy |
| Editors | Piero Baraldi, Francesco Di Maio, Enrico Zio |
| Place of Publication | Singapore |
| Pages | 2257-2264 |
| Number of pages | 8 |
| ISBN (electronic) | 9789811485930 |
| Publication status | Published - 2020 |
| Event | 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2020 - Venice, Virtual, Italy Duration: 1 Nov 2020 → 5 Nov 2020 |
Abstract
The excessive deformation caused by tunnel squeezing hazard is a key problem in tunnel construction, especially when tunneling through weak and over-stressed rock masses. Significant losses and delays would arise should an inappropriate selection of tunnel support be made. This paper presents a risk-based decision making framework to select the optimal support scheme in a quantitative manner. A program evaluation and review technique based Monte Carlo simulation procedure, which aims to estimate the cost distribution of different tunnel support schemes, is coupled with a multi-class probabilistic classifier on tunnel squeezing intensity. The risks regarding different scenarios of squeezing intensity and support scheme are expressed in a cost-benefit perspective using a modified Event Tree analysis, where abundant simulations of decision making can be done at one time and the optimal support scheme is hence selected based on votes. Finally, an engineering application is presented to demonstrate the efficiency and practicality of the proposed framework.
Keywords
- Cost-benefit analysis, Decision making, Monte Carlo, Risk assessment, Tunnel squeezing
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Engineering(all)
- Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
- Social Sciences(all)
- Safety Research
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e-proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (ESREL2020 PSAM15): 01-05 November 2020, Venice, Italy. ed. / Piero Baraldi; Francesco Di Maio; Enrico Zio. Singapore, 2020. p. 2257-2264.
Research output: Chapter in book/report/conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Research › peer review
}
TY - GEN
T1 - Decision making for optimal primary-support selection to minimise tunnel-squeezing risk
AU - Chen, Yu
AU - Patelli, Edoardo
AU - Zeng, Peng
AU - Edwards, Ben
AU - Li, Tianbin
AU - Beer, Michael
PY - 2020
Y1 - 2020
N2 - The excessive deformation caused by tunnel squeezing hazard is a key problem in tunnel construction, especially when tunneling through weak and over-stressed rock masses. Significant losses and delays would arise should an inappropriate selection of tunnel support be made. This paper presents a risk-based decision making framework to select the optimal support scheme in a quantitative manner. A program evaluation and review technique based Monte Carlo simulation procedure, which aims to estimate the cost distribution of different tunnel support schemes, is coupled with a multi-class probabilistic classifier on tunnel squeezing intensity. The risks regarding different scenarios of squeezing intensity and support scheme are expressed in a cost-benefit perspective using a modified Event Tree analysis, where abundant simulations of decision making can be done at one time and the optimal support scheme is hence selected based on votes. Finally, an engineering application is presented to demonstrate the efficiency and practicality of the proposed framework.
AB - The excessive deformation caused by tunnel squeezing hazard is a key problem in tunnel construction, especially when tunneling through weak and over-stressed rock masses. Significant losses and delays would arise should an inappropriate selection of tunnel support be made. This paper presents a risk-based decision making framework to select the optimal support scheme in a quantitative manner. A program evaluation and review technique based Monte Carlo simulation procedure, which aims to estimate the cost distribution of different tunnel support schemes, is coupled with a multi-class probabilistic classifier on tunnel squeezing intensity. The risks regarding different scenarios of squeezing intensity and support scheme are expressed in a cost-benefit perspective using a modified Event Tree analysis, where abundant simulations of decision making can be done at one time and the optimal support scheme is hence selected based on votes. Finally, an engineering application is presented to demonstrate the efficiency and practicality of the proposed framework.
KW - Cost-benefit analysis
KW - Decision making
KW - Monte Carlo
KW - Risk assessment
KW - Tunnel squeezing
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85110282034&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3850/978-981-14-8593-0_4170-cd
DO - 10.3850/978-981-14-8593-0_4170-cd
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85110282034
SP - 2257
EP - 2264
BT - e-proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (ESREL2020 PSAM15)
A2 - Baraldi, Piero
A2 - Di Maio, Francesco
A2 - Zio, Enrico
CY - Singapore
T2 - 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2020
Y2 - 1 November 2020 through 5 November 2020
ER -