Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 753 |
| Journal | Energies |
| Volume | 14 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| Publication status | Published - 1 Feb 2021 |
Abstract
A novel high-resolution method for forecasting cloud motion from all-sky images using deep learning is presented. A convolutional neural network (CNN) was created and trained with more than two years of all-sky images, recorded by a hemispheric sky imager (HSI) at the Institute of Meteorology and Climatology (IMUK) of the Leibniz Universität Hannover, Hannover, Germany. Using the haze indexpostprocessing algorithm, cloud characteristics were found, and the deformation vector of each cloud was performed and used as ground truth. The CNN training process was built to predict cloud motion up to 10 min ahead, in a sequence of HSI images, tracking clouds frame by frame. The first two simulated minutes show a strong similarity between simulated and measured cloud motion, which allows photovoltaic (PV) companies to make accurate horizon time predictions and better marketing decisions for primary and secondary control reserves. This cloud motion algorithm principally targets global irradiance predictions as an application for electrical engineering and in PV output predictions. Comparisons between the results of the predicted region of interest of a cloud by the proposed method and real cloud position show a mean Sørensen–Dice similarity coefficient (SD) of 94 ± 2.6% (mean ± standard deviation) for the first minute, outperforming the persistence model (89 ± 3.8%). As the forecast time window increased the index decreased to 44.4 ± 12.3% for the CNN and 37.8 ± 16.4% for the persistence model for 10 min ahead forecast. In addition, up to 10 min global horizontal irradiance was also derived using a feed-forward artificial neural network technique for each CNN forecasted image. Therefore, the new algorithm presented here increases the SD approximately 15% compared to the reference persistence model.
Keywords
- All-sky image, Cloud motion prediction, Convolutional neural network
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Mathematics(all)
- Control and Optimization
- Energy(all)
- Energy (miscellaneous)
- Energy(all)
- Energy Engineering and Power Technology
- Engineering(all)
- Electrical and Electronic Engineering
- Energy(all)
- Fuel Technology
- Energy(all)
- Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
Sustainable Development Goals
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In: Energies, Vol. 14, No. 3, 753, 01.02.2021.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Convolutional Neural Network for High-Resolution Cloud Motion Prediction from Hemispheric Sky Images
AU - Crisosto, Cristian
AU - Luiz, Eduardo W.
AU - Seckmeyer, Gunther
N1 - Funding Information: Acknowledgments: The publication of this article was funded by the Open Access fund of Leibniz Universität Hannover.
PY - 2021/2/1
Y1 - 2021/2/1
N2 - A novel high-resolution method for forecasting cloud motion from all-sky images using deep learning is presented. A convolutional neural network (CNN) was created and trained with more than two years of all-sky images, recorded by a hemispheric sky imager (HSI) at the Institute of Meteorology and Climatology (IMUK) of the Leibniz Universität Hannover, Hannover, Germany. Using the haze indexpostprocessing algorithm, cloud characteristics were found, and the deformation vector of each cloud was performed and used as ground truth. The CNN training process was built to predict cloud motion up to 10 min ahead, in a sequence of HSI images, tracking clouds frame by frame. The first two simulated minutes show a strong similarity between simulated and measured cloud motion, which allows photovoltaic (PV) companies to make accurate horizon time predictions and better marketing decisions for primary and secondary control reserves. This cloud motion algorithm principally targets global irradiance predictions as an application for electrical engineering and in PV output predictions. Comparisons between the results of the predicted region of interest of a cloud by the proposed method and real cloud position show a mean Sørensen–Dice similarity coefficient (SD) of 94 ± 2.6% (mean ± standard deviation) for the first minute, outperforming the persistence model (89 ± 3.8%). As the forecast time window increased the index decreased to 44.4 ± 12.3% for the CNN and 37.8 ± 16.4% for the persistence model for 10 min ahead forecast. In addition, up to 10 min global horizontal irradiance was also derived using a feed-forward artificial neural network technique for each CNN forecasted image. Therefore, the new algorithm presented here increases the SD approximately 15% compared to the reference persistence model.
AB - A novel high-resolution method for forecasting cloud motion from all-sky images using deep learning is presented. A convolutional neural network (CNN) was created and trained with more than two years of all-sky images, recorded by a hemispheric sky imager (HSI) at the Institute of Meteorology and Climatology (IMUK) of the Leibniz Universität Hannover, Hannover, Germany. Using the haze indexpostprocessing algorithm, cloud characteristics were found, and the deformation vector of each cloud was performed and used as ground truth. The CNN training process was built to predict cloud motion up to 10 min ahead, in a sequence of HSI images, tracking clouds frame by frame. The first two simulated minutes show a strong similarity between simulated and measured cloud motion, which allows photovoltaic (PV) companies to make accurate horizon time predictions and better marketing decisions for primary and secondary control reserves. This cloud motion algorithm principally targets global irradiance predictions as an application for electrical engineering and in PV output predictions. Comparisons between the results of the predicted region of interest of a cloud by the proposed method and real cloud position show a mean Sørensen–Dice similarity coefficient (SD) of 94 ± 2.6% (mean ± standard deviation) for the first minute, outperforming the persistence model (89 ± 3.8%). As the forecast time window increased the index decreased to 44.4 ± 12.3% for the CNN and 37.8 ± 16.4% for the persistence model for 10 min ahead forecast. In addition, up to 10 min global horizontal irradiance was also derived using a feed-forward artificial neural network technique for each CNN forecasted image. Therefore, the new algorithm presented here increases the SD approximately 15% compared to the reference persistence model.
KW - All-sky image
KW - Cloud motion prediction
KW - Convolutional neural network
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85106299649&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3390/en14030753
DO - 10.3390/en14030753
M3 - Article
VL - 14
JO - Energies
JF - Energies
SN - 1996-1073
IS - 3
M1 - 753
ER -