Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 232-242 |
| Number of pages | 11 |
| Journal | Journal of flood risk management |
| Volume | 2 |
| Issue number | 4 |
| Early online date | 13 Nov 2009 |
| Publication status | Published - Dec 2009 |
Abstract
A probabilistic evaluation of ensemble forecasts can be used to communicate uncertainty to decision makers. We present a flood forecast scheme, which combines forecasts from the European COSMO-LEPS, SRNWP-PEPS and COSMO-DE (lagged average) ensemble prediction systems with a rainfall-runoff model. The methodology was demonstrated with a case study for the Central European Mulde River basin. In this paper, we summarize results from hindcast simulations for seven events from 2002 to 2008. The ensemble spread resulting from uncertainty in rainfall forecast was very high at 2-5 days lead time. The median of the medium- and short-range forecasts and a lagged average ensemble of the very short-range forecasts proved to be reliable regarding the probability of exceeding flood alert levels. However, the limited number of observed events does not allow for the postulation of prescriptive binary decision rules. Flood managers have to adapt their decisions when new information becomes available.
Keywords
- Decision support system, Ensemble technique, Extreme flood, Flood forecast, Flood risk, Rainfall-runoff model, Reliability
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Environmental Science(all)
- Environmental Engineering
- Social Sciences(all)
- Geography, Planning and Development
- Engineering(all)
- Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
- Environmental Science(all)
- Water Science and Technology
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In: Journal of flood risk management, Vol. 2, No. 4, 12.2009, p. 232-242.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Can ensemble forecasts improve the reliability of flood alerts?
AU - Dietrich, J.
AU - Denhard, M.
AU - Schumann, A. H.
PY - 2009/12
Y1 - 2009/12
N2 - A probabilistic evaluation of ensemble forecasts can be used to communicate uncertainty to decision makers. We present a flood forecast scheme, which combines forecasts from the European COSMO-LEPS, SRNWP-PEPS and COSMO-DE (lagged average) ensemble prediction systems with a rainfall-runoff model. The methodology was demonstrated with a case study for the Central European Mulde River basin. In this paper, we summarize results from hindcast simulations for seven events from 2002 to 2008. The ensemble spread resulting from uncertainty in rainfall forecast was very high at 2-5 days lead time. The median of the medium- and short-range forecasts and a lagged average ensemble of the very short-range forecasts proved to be reliable regarding the probability of exceeding flood alert levels. However, the limited number of observed events does not allow for the postulation of prescriptive binary decision rules. Flood managers have to adapt their decisions when new information becomes available.
AB - A probabilistic evaluation of ensemble forecasts can be used to communicate uncertainty to decision makers. We present a flood forecast scheme, which combines forecasts from the European COSMO-LEPS, SRNWP-PEPS and COSMO-DE (lagged average) ensemble prediction systems with a rainfall-runoff model. The methodology was demonstrated with a case study for the Central European Mulde River basin. In this paper, we summarize results from hindcast simulations for seven events from 2002 to 2008. The ensemble spread resulting from uncertainty in rainfall forecast was very high at 2-5 days lead time. The median of the medium- and short-range forecasts and a lagged average ensemble of the very short-range forecasts proved to be reliable regarding the probability of exceeding flood alert levels. However, the limited number of observed events does not allow for the postulation of prescriptive binary decision rules. Flood managers have to adapt their decisions when new information becomes available.
KW - Decision support system
KW - Ensemble technique
KW - Extreme flood
KW - Flood forecast
KW - Flood risk
KW - Rainfall-runoff model
KW - Reliability
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=74349128163&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1111/j.1753-318X.2009.01039.x
DO - 10.1111/j.1753-318X.2009.01039.x
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:74349128163
VL - 2
SP - 232
EP - 242
JO - Journal of flood risk management
JF - Journal of flood risk management
SN - 1753-318X
IS - 4
ER -