Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | 14th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management |
| Number of pages | 11 |
| Publication status | Published - 2018 |
| Event | 14th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, PSAM 2018 - Los Angeles, United States, Los Angeles, United States Duration: 16 Sept 2018 → 21 Sept 2018 Conference number: 14 |
Abstract
Looking into aviation, nuclear power generation, oil & gas and chemical industries, one can notice their interaction between organisational factors, technological systems and humans – the so-called complex socio-technical systems. To prevent accidents from occurring, engineers carry out safety analyses, and to calculate the likelihood of some scenarios they have to know the failure rates. It is easy to understand that components’ failure rates are evaluated differently from human’s failure rate. This subject is called Human Reliability Analysis (HRA), and it should be analysed ideally through the cooperation between engineers, psychologists and sociologists. Bayesian network is a probabilistic methodology that allows these three professional groups to better communicate through its intuitive graphical representation of the conditional probabilities. This paper presents a Bayesian model of a dataset of major accidents from different industrial sectors, instead of using scenario simulators and expert elicitation. The steps required to construct a model are presented together with tools for the assessment of the conditional probability and the model validation. The proposed approach allows to calculate the Human Error Probabilities as outputs of the model.
Keywords
- Bayesian network, Human Error Probability, Human Reliability Analysis, Major accidents dataset
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Engineering(all)
- Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
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14th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management. 2018.
Research output: Chapter in book/report/conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Research › peer review
}
TY - GEN
T1 - Attempt to predict human error probability in different industry sectors using data from major accidents and Bayesian networks
AU - Morais, C.
AU - Moura, R.
AU - Beer, M.
AU - Patelli, E.
N1 - Conference code: 14
PY - 2018
Y1 - 2018
N2 - Looking into aviation, nuclear power generation, oil & gas and chemical industries, one can notice their interaction between organisational factors, technological systems and humans – the so-called complex socio-technical systems. To prevent accidents from occurring, engineers carry out safety analyses, and to calculate the likelihood of some scenarios they have to know the failure rates. It is easy to understand that components’ failure rates are evaluated differently from human’s failure rate. This subject is called Human Reliability Analysis (HRA), and it should be analysed ideally through the cooperation between engineers, psychologists and sociologists. Bayesian network is a probabilistic methodology that allows these three professional groups to better communicate through its intuitive graphical representation of the conditional probabilities. This paper presents a Bayesian model of a dataset of major accidents from different industrial sectors, instead of using scenario simulators and expert elicitation. The steps required to construct a model are presented together with tools for the assessment of the conditional probability and the model validation. The proposed approach allows to calculate the Human Error Probabilities as outputs of the model.
AB - Looking into aviation, nuclear power generation, oil & gas and chemical industries, one can notice their interaction between organisational factors, technological systems and humans – the so-called complex socio-technical systems. To prevent accidents from occurring, engineers carry out safety analyses, and to calculate the likelihood of some scenarios they have to know the failure rates. It is easy to understand that components’ failure rates are evaluated differently from human’s failure rate. This subject is called Human Reliability Analysis (HRA), and it should be analysed ideally through the cooperation between engineers, psychologists and sociologists. Bayesian network is a probabilistic methodology that allows these three professional groups to better communicate through its intuitive graphical representation of the conditional probabilities. This paper presents a Bayesian model of a dataset of major accidents from different industrial sectors, instead of using scenario simulators and expert elicitation. The steps required to construct a model are presented together with tools for the assessment of the conditional probability and the model validation. The proposed approach allows to calculate the Human Error Probabilities as outputs of the model.
KW - Bayesian network
KW - Human Error Probability
KW - Human Reliability Analysis
KW - Major accidents dataset
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85063142137&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - Conference contribution
BT - 14th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management
T2 - 14th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, PSAM 2018
Y2 - 16 September 2018 through 21 September 2018
ER -