Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 275-289 |
| Number of pages | 15 |
| Journal | WIND ENERGY |
| Volume | 24 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| Early online date | 20 Oct 2020 |
| Publication status | Published - 18 Feb 2021 |
Abstract
When discussing the connection of wind energy and climate change, normally, the potential of wind energy to reduce green house gas emissions is emphasised. Hence, effects of wind energy on climate change are analysed. However, what about the other direction? What is the impact of climate change on wind energy? Recently, the effect of a reversal in global terrestrial stilling,that is, an increase in global wind speeds in the last decade, on the wind energy production has been analysed. Certainly, knowledge about potential changes in energy production is essential to plan future energy supply. Nonetheless, at least similarly important is the effect on loads acting on wind turbines. Increasing loads due to higher wind speeds might reduce wind turbine lifetimes and yield higher costs. Moreover, especially for already existing turbines, it might even affect the structural reliability. Since the impact of climate change on wind turbine loads is largely unknown, it is studied in this work in more detail. For this purpose, different existing models for predicted changes in wind speed and air temperature and their uncertainties are used to forecast the environmental conditions an exemplary offshore wind turbine is exposed to. Subsequently, for this turbine, the lifetime fatigue damages are calculated for different prediction models. It is shown that the expected changes in lifetime fatigue damages are present but relatively small compared to other uncertainties in the fatigue damage calculation.
Keywords
- climate change, fatigue, imprecise probabilities, scattering environmental conditions, uncertainty, wind energy
ASJC Scopus subject areas
Sustainable Development Goals
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In: WIND ENERGY, Vol. 24, No. 3, 18.02.2021, p. 275-289.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Analysis of the influence of climate change on the fatigue lifetime of offshore wind turbines using imprecise probabilities
AU - Hübler, Clemens
AU - Rolfes, Raimund
N1 - Funding Information: We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) for the project (436547100). ENERGIZE
PY - 2021/2/18
Y1 - 2021/2/18
N2 - When discussing the connection of wind energy and climate change, normally, the potential of wind energy to reduce green house gas emissions is emphasised. Hence, effects of wind energy on climate change are analysed. However, what about the other direction? What is the impact of climate change on wind energy? Recently, the effect of a reversal in global terrestrial stilling,that is, an increase in global wind speeds in the last decade, on the wind energy production has been analysed. Certainly, knowledge about potential changes in energy production is essential to plan future energy supply. Nonetheless, at least similarly important is the effect on loads acting on wind turbines. Increasing loads due to higher wind speeds might reduce wind turbine lifetimes and yield higher costs. Moreover, especially for already existing turbines, it might even affect the structural reliability. Since the impact of climate change on wind turbine loads is largely unknown, it is studied in this work in more detail. For this purpose, different existing models for predicted changes in wind speed and air temperature and their uncertainties are used to forecast the environmental conditions an exemplary offshore wind turbine is exposed to. Subsequently, for this turbine, the lifetime fatigue damages are calculated for different prediction models. It is shown that the expected changes in lifetime fatigue damages are present but relatively small compared to other uncertainties in the fatigue damage calculation.
AB - When discussing the connection of wind energy and climate change, normally, the potential of wind energy to reduce green house gas emissions is emphasised. Hence, effects of wind energy on climate change are analysed. However, what about the other direction? What is the impact of climate change on wind energy? Recently, the effect of a reversal in global terrestrial stilling,that is, an increase in global wind speeds in the last decade, on the wind energy production has been analysed. Certainly, knowledge about potential changes in energy production is essential to plan future energy supply. Nonetheless, at least similarly important is the effect on loads acting on wind turbines. Increasing loads due to higher wind speeds might reduce wind turbine lifetimes and yield higher costs. Moreover, especially for already existing turbines, it might even affect the structural reliability. Since the impact of climate change on wind turbine loads is largely unknown, it is studied in this work in more detail. For this purpose, different existing models for predicted changes in wind speed and air temperature and their uncertainties are used to forecast the environmental conditions an exemplary offshore wind turbine is exposed to. Subsequently, for this turbine, the lifetime fatigue damages are calculated for different prediction models. It is shown that the expected changes in lifetime fatigue damages are present but relatively small compared to other uncertainties in the fatigue damage calculation.
KW - climate change
KW - fatigue
KW - imprecise probabilities
KW - scattering environmental conditions
KW - uncertainty
KW - wind energy
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85092781243&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1002/we.2572
DO - 10.1002/we.2572
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85092781243
VL - 24
SP - 275
EP - 289
JO - WIND ENERGY
JF - WIND ENERGY
SN - 1095-4244
IS - 3
ER -