A new reliability method combining adaptive Kriging and active variance reduction using multiple importance sampling

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  • Northwestern Polytechnical University
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Original languageEnglish
Article number144
JournalStructural and Multidisciplinary Optimization
Volume66
Issue number6
Early online date12 Jun 2023
Publication statusPublished - 23 Jun 2023

Abstract

This article describes a new adaptive Kriging method combined with adaptive importance sampling approximating the optimal auxiliary by iteratively building a Gaussian mixture distribution. The aim is to iteratively reduce both the modeling and sampling errors simultaneously, thus avoiding limitations in cases of very rare failure events. At each iteration, a near optimal auxiliary Gaussian distribution is defined and new samples are drawn from it following the scheme of adaptive multiple importance sampling (MIS). The corresponding estimator is provided as well as its variance. A new learning function is developed as a generalization of the U learning function for MIS populations. A stopping criterion is proposed based on both the modeling error and the variance of the estimator. Results on benchmark problems show that the method exhibits very good performances on both efficiency and accuracy.

Keywords

    Adaptive Kriging, Extremely rare failure events, Multiple importance sampling, Reliability method, Variance reduction

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A new reliability method combining adaptive Kriging and active variance reduction using multiple importance sampling. / Persoons, Augustin; Wei, Pengfei; Broggi, Matteo et al.
In: Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization, Vol. 66, No. 6, 144, 23.06.2023.

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author = "Augustin Persoons and Pengfei Wei and Matteo Broggi and Michael Beer",
note = "Funding Information: The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the Research Foundation Flanders (FWO) under Grant GOC2218N (A. Persoons). In addition, we acknowledge the European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program GREYDIENT under Grant Agreement n° 955393. ",
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AU - Persoons, Augustin

AU - Wei, Pengfei

AU - Broggi, Matteo

AU - Beer, Michael

N1 - Funding Information: The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the Research Foundation Flanders (FWO) under Grant GOC2218N (A. Persoons). In addition, we acknowledge the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program GREYDIENT under Grant Agreement n° 955393.

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N2 - This article describes a new adaptive Kriging method combined with adaptive importance sampling approximating the optimal auxiliary by iteratively building a Gaussian mixture distribution. The aim is to iteratively reduce both the modeling and sampling errors simultaneously, thus avoiding limitations in cases of very rare failure events. At each iteration, a near optimal auxiliary Gaussian distribution is defined and new samples are drawn from it following the scheme of adaptive multiple importance sampling (MIS). The corresponding estimator is provided as well as its variance. A new learning function is developed as a generalization of the U learning function for MIS populations. A stopping criterion is proposed based on both the modeling error and the variance of the estimator. Results on benchmark problems show that the method exhibits very good performances on both efficiency and accuracy.

AB - This article describes a new adaptive Kriging method combined with adaptive importance sampling approximating the optimal auxiliary by iteratively building a Gaussian mixture distribution. The aim is to iteratively reduce both the modeling and sampling errors simultaneously, thus avoiding limitations in cases of very rare failure events. At each iteration, a near optimal auxiliary Gaussian distribution is defined and new samples are drawn from it following the scheme of adaptive multiple importance sampling (MIS). The corresponding estimator is provided as well as its variance. A new learning function is developed as a generalization of the U learning function for MIS populations. A stopping criterion is proposed based on both the modeling error and the variance of the estimator. Results on benchmark problems show that the method exhibits very good performances on both efficiency and accuracy.

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KW - Reliability method

KW - Variance reduction

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