Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 161-173 |
| Number of pages | 13 |
| Journal | Regional environmental change |
| Volume | 18 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| Publication status | Published - 22 Nov 2017 |
Abstract
This article describes the design of a new model-based assessment framework to identify and analyse possible future trajectories of agricultural development and their environmental consequences within the states of Mato Grosso and Pará in Southern Amazonia, Brazil. The objective is to provide a tool for improving the information basis for scientists and policy makers regarding the effects of global change and national environmental policies on land-use change and the resulting impacts on the loss of natural vegetation, greenhouse gas emissions, hydrological processes, and soil erosion within the region. For this purpose, the framework combines the regional land-use models, LandSHIFT and alucR, the farm-level model, MPMAS, and the MONICA crop model, with a set of environmental impact models that are operating at the regional and watershed levels. As a first application of the framework, four scenarios with the time horizon 2030 were specified and analysed. Future land-use change will strongly depend on the interplay between the production of agricultural commodities, the agricultural intensification in terms of increasing crop yields and pasture biomass productivity, and the enforcement of environmental laws and policies. On the regional level, the scenarios with the highest increase in agricultural production in combination with weak law enforcement (Trend and Illegal Intensification) generated the highest losses in natural vegetation due to the expansion of agricultural area as well as the highest greenhouse gas emissions. Also, at the watershed level, these scenarios are characterised by the highest changes in river discharge and soil erosion that might lead to a further decline in soil fertility in the long term. Moreover, the analysis of the Sustainable Development scenario indicates that a shift in agricultural production patterns from livestock to crop cultivation, together with effective law enforcement, can effectively reduce land-use change and its negative effects on the environment. With the scenario analysis, we could illustrate that our assessment framework is capable to provide a large variety of valuable information to support the development of future land-use strategies in the study region.
Keywords
- Assessment framework, Environmental impact, Land-use change, Southern Amazonia
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Environmental Science(all)
- Global and Planetary Change
Sustainable Development Goals
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In: Regional environmental change, Vol. 18, No. 1, 22.11.2017, p. 161-173.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - A model-based assessment of the environmental impact of land-use change across scales in Southern Amazonia
AU - Schaldach, Rüdiger
AU - Meurer, Katharina H.E.
AU - Jungkunst, Hermann F.
AU - Nendel, Claas
AU - Lakes, Tobia
AU - Gollnow, Florian
AU - Göpel, Jan
AU - Boy, Jens
AU - Guggenberger, Georg
AU - Strey, Robert
AU - Strey, Simone
AU - Berger, Thomas
AU - Gerold, Gerhard
AU - Schönenberg, Regine
AU - Böhner, Jürgen
AU - Schindewolf, Marcus
AU - Latynskiy, Evgeny
AU - Hampf, Anna
AU - Parker, Phillip S.
AU - Sentelhas, Paulo César
N1 - Funding information: This study was conducted in the framework of the integrated project CarBioCial funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) under the grant number 01LL0902K. We thank all involved stakeholders, farmers, and our Brazilian scientific colleagues for their support and CNPq, Embrapa, and FAPEMAT for co-funding of Brazilian counterpart projects. This study was conducted in the framework of the integrated project CarBioCial funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) under the grant number 01LL0902K. We thank all involved stakeholders, farmers, and our Brazilian scientific colleagues for their support and CNPq, Embrapa, and FAPEMAT for co-funding of Brazilian counterpart projects.
PY - 2017/11/22
Y1 - 2017/11/22
N2 - This article describes the design of a new model-based assessment framework to identify and analyse possible future trajectories of agricultural development and their environmental consequences within the states of Mato Grosso and Pará in Southern Amazonia, Brazil. The objective is to provide a tool for improving the information basis for scientists and policy makers regarding the effects of global change and national environmental policies on land-use change and the resulting impacts on the loss of natural vegetation, greenhouse gas emissions, hydrological processes, and soil erosion within the region. For this purpose, the framework combines the regional land-use models, LandSHIFT and alucR, the farm-level model, MPMAS, and the MONICA crop model, with a set of environmental impact models that are operating at the regional and watershed levels. As a first application of the framework, four scenarios with the time horizon 2030 were specified and analysed. Future land-use change will strongly depend on the interplay between the production of agricultural commodities, the agricultural intensification in terms of increasing crop yields and pasture biomass productivity, and the enforcement of environmental laws and policies. On the regional level, the scenarios with the highest increase in agricultural production in combination with weak law enforcement (Trend and Illegal Intensification) generated the highest losses in natural vegetation due to the expansion of agricultural area as well as the highest greenhouse gas emissions. Also, at the watershed level, these scenarios are characterised by the highest changes in river discharge and soil erosion that might lead to a further decline in soil fertility in the long term. Moreover, the analysis of the Sustainable Development scenario indicates that a shift in agricultural production patterns from livestock to crop cultivation, together with effective law enforcement, can effectively reduce land-use change and its negative effects on the environment. With the scenario analysis, we could illustrate that our assessment framework is capable to provide a large variety of valuable information to support the development of future land-use strategies in the study region.
AB - This article describes the design of a new model-based assessment framework to identify and analyse possible future trajectories of agricultural development and their environmental consequences within the states of Mato Grosso and Pará in Southern Amazonia, Brazil. The objective is to provide a tool for improving the information basis for scientists and policy makers regarding the effects of global change and national environmental policies on land-use change and the resulting impacts on the loss of natural vegetation, greenhouse gas emissions, hydrological processes, and soil erosion within the region. For this purpose, the framework combines the regional land-use models, LandSHIFT and alucR, the farm-level model, MPMAS, and the MONICA crop model, with a set of environmental impact models that are operating at the regional and watershed levels. As a first application of the framework, four scenarios with the time horizon 2030 were specified and analysed. Future land-use change will strongly depend on the interplay between the production of agricultural commodities, the agricultural intensification in terms of increasing crop yields and pasture biomass productivity, and the enforcement of environmental laws and policies. On the regional level, the scenarios with the highest increase in agricultural production in combination with weak law enforcement (Trend and Illegal Intensification) generated the highest losses in natural vegetation due to the expansion of agricultural area as well as the highest greenhouse gas emissions. Also, at the watershed level, these scenarios are characterised by the highest changes in river discharge and soil erosion that might lead to a further decline in soil fertility in the long term. Moreover, the analysis of the Sustainable Development scenario indicates that a shift in agricultural production patterns from livestock to crop cultivation, together with effective law enforcement, can effectively reduce land-use change and its negative effects on the environment. With the scenario analysis, we could illustrate that our assessment framework is capable to provide a large variety of valuable information to support the development of future land-use strategies in the study region.
KW - Assessment framework
KW - Environmental impact
KW - Land-use change
KW - Southern Amazonia
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85034647983&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s10113-017-1244-z
DO - 10.1007/s10113-017-1244-z
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85034647983
VL - 18
SP - 161
EP - 173
JO - Regional environmental change
JF - Regional environmental change
SN - 1436-3798
IS - 1
ER -