TY - JOUR

T1 - Uncertainties in land use data may have substantial effects on environmental planning recommendations

T2 - A plea for careful consideration

AU - Neuendorf, Felix

AU - Thiele, Julia

AU - Albert, Christian

AU - von Haaren, Christina

N1 - Funding: This study was funded by the German Research Foundation (HA 3301/8-1, 250763334), https://www.dfg.de/en/index.jsp - FN, and the German Federal Agency for Nature Conservation (FKZ 3515 82 4300), https://www.bfn.de/en.html, in cooperation with the German Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, - JT. The publication of this article was funded by the Open Access Fund of the Leibniz Universität Hannover. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

PY - 2021/11/24

Y1 - 2021/11/24

N2 - A key challenge of environmental planning is to craft recommendations for future sustainable spatial development amid ubiquitous uncertainties. This paper aims to explore how different data uncertainties, usually unknown to the planner, may influence environmental planning recommendations. We apply a case study-based approach, in which we provide three illustrative examples of how data with different kinds and levels of uncertainty affect environmental assessments and, by that, the decision-support provided by environmental planning. The cases stem from different spatial levels in Germany and consider 'Regional soil-based climate change mitigation' in the region of Hannover, 'State-wide habitat conservation siting' in the federal state of Saxony-Anhalt, and 'National renewable energy planning'. Based on the three examples, we discuss implications for planning practice and derive recommendations for further research. The three cases studies illustrate the substantial effects of data uncertainty on environmental assessments and planning recommendations derived from those results. We identify four problem constellations of dealing with data uncertainty in environmental planning that relate to the severeness of uncertainty impacts, the responsibility of the decision-maker, and the kinds of impacts that wrong decisions may have. We close with recommendations for further research, among others to develop robust and pragmatic methods for identifying the uncertainty levels in environmental data and assessment results.

AB - A key challenge of environmental planning is to craft recommendations for future sustainable spatial development amid ubiquitous uncertainties. This paper aims to explore how different data uncertainties, usually unknown to the planner, may influence environmental planning recommendations. We apply a case study-based approach, in which we provide three illustrative examples of how data with different kinds and levels of uncertainty affect environmental assessments and, by that, the decision-support provided by environmental planning. The cases stem from different spatial levels in Germany and consider 'Regional soil-based climate change mitigation' in the region of Hannover, 'State-wide habitat conservation siting' in the federal state of Saxony-Anhalt, and 'National renewable energy planning'. Based on the three examples, we discuss implications for planning practice and derive recommendations for further research. The three cases studies illustrate the substantial effects of data uncertainty on environmental assessments and planning recommendations derived from those results. We identify four problem constellations of dealing with data uncertainty in environmental planning that relate to the severeness of uncertainty impacts, the responsibility of the decision-maker, and the kinds of impacts that wrong decisions may have. We close with recommendations for further research, among others to develop robust and pragmatic methods for identifying the uncertainty levels in environmental data and assessment results.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85120078994&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1371/journal.pone.0260302

DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0260302

M3 - Article

C2 - 34818356

AN - SCOPUS:85120078994

VL - 16

JO - PLOS ONE

JF - PLOS ONE

SN - 1932-6203

IS - 11

M1 - e0260302

ER -