TY - JOUR

T1 - Storylines of combined future land use and climate scenarios and their hydrological impacts in an Alpine catchment (Brixental/Austria)

AU - Strasser, Ulrich

AU - Förster, Kristian

AU - Formayer, Herbert

AU - Hofmeister, Florentin

AU - Marke, Thomas

AU - Meißl, Gertraud

AU - Nadeem, Imran

AU - Stotten, Rike

AU - Schermer, Markus

N1 - Funding Information: The presented study was funded by the Austrian Climate Research Program of the Austrian Climate and Energy Fund [project STELLA KR13AC6K11109, ACRP6]. Parts of the WaSiM model development was supported by the Bavarian State Ministry of the Environment and Consumer Protection StMUV [project BIAS II TKP01KPB-66747]. Many supporting people have significantly contributed to the success of the study. Elisabeth Mair, Melanie Steinbacher and Marcel Siegmann (all University of Innsbruck) worked for the project in its beginning and prepared much of the material that was used later on. Stefan Pohl (†), Jakob Garvelmann (both University of Freiburg) and Michael Warscher (IMK-IFU Garmisch-Partenkirchen) helped with processing and interpreting the measurement data. Matthias Themessl, Stefan Ropač Angelika Wolf and Heide Spitzer (all Climate Change Service Center, Graz/Austria) planned and organized the stakeholder workshops which were moderated by Ines Omann (Vienna) and documented by Viktoria Wegscheider and Carolin Holtkamp (both Innsbruck). We profited from many very valuable supporting ideas and experience of the local actors, forest experts and farming specialists Johann Bachler, Gerhard Markart, Patricia Schrittwieser, Alois Simon, Dieter Stöhr and Peter Zimmermann (all Innsbruck). Finally, Jörg Schulla (Zürich) programmed the WaSiM interface for our new snow-canopy model extension and provided support in its design. Florian Hanzer (University of Innsbruck) helped with debugging of the new code. Meteorological data was provided by the Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (Vienna) and the Hydrographic Service of Tyrol (Innsbruck). We greatly acknowledge the contributions of two anonymous reviewers for their comprehensive and constructive improvements of the manuscript of this paper. Funding Information: The presented study was funded by the Austrian Climate Research Program of the Austrian Climate and Energy Fund [project STELLA KR13AC6K11109 , ACRP6 ]. Parts of the WaSiM model development was supported by the Bavarian State Ministry of the Environment and Consumer Protection StMUV [project BIAS II TKP01KPB-66747]. Many supporting people have significantly contributed to the success of the study. Elisabeth Mair, Melanie Steinbacher and Marcel Siegmann (all University of Innsbruck) worked for the project in its beginning and prepared much of the material that was used later on. Stefan Pohl (†), Jakob Garvelmann (both University of Freiburg) and Michael Warscher (IMK-IFU Garmisch-Partenkirchen) helped with processing and interpreting the measurement data. Matthias Themessl, Stefan Ropač, Angelika Wolf and Heide Spitzer (all Climate Change Service Center, Graz/Austria) planned and organized the stakeholder workshops which were moderated by Ines Omann (Vienna) and documented by Viktoria Wegscheider and Carolin Holtkamp (both Innsbruck). We profited from many very valuable supporting ideas and experience of the local actors, forest experts and farming specialists Johann Bachler, Gerhard Markart, Patricia Schrittwieser, Alois Simon, Dieter Stöhr and Peter Zimmermann (all Innsbruck). Finally, Jörg Schulla (Zürich) programmed the WaSiM interface for our new snow-canopy model extension and provided support in its design. Florian Hanzer (University of Innsbruck) helped with debugging of the new code. Meteorological data was provided by the Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (Vienna) and the Hydrographic Service of Tyrol (Innsbruck). We greatly acknowledge the contributions of two anonymous reviewers for their comprehensive and constructive improvements of the manuscript of this paper. Publisher Copyright: © 2018 Elsevier B.V.

PY - 2019/3/20

Y1 - 2019/3/20

N2 - In this paper, the hydrological impacts of future socio-economic and climatic development are assessed for a regional-scale Alpine catchment (Brixental, Tyrol, Austria). Therefore, coupled storylines of future land use and climate scenarios were developed in a transdisciplinary stakeholder process by means of questionnaire analyses and interviews with local experts from various relevant societal sectors. Resulting future land use maps for each decade were used as spatial input in the hydrological model WaSiM, to which a new module for the consideration of snow-canopy interaction processes has been added. Simulation results for three developed storylines, each combined with a moderate (A1B) and an extreme (RCP8.5) climate future, show that in a warmer and dryer climate the amount of annual simulated streamflow at the gauge of the catchment undergoes a significant reduction. The (mainly natural) reforestation of the catchment – caused by abandonment of previously cultivated areas – leads to additional losses of water by enhanced interception and evapotranspiration processes. Further cultivation of the current mountain pasture areas has a certain potential to attenuate undesirable long-term impacts of climate change on the catchment water balance.

AB - In this paper, the hydrological impacts of future socio-economic and climatic development are assessed for a regional-scale Alpine catchment (Brixental, Tyrol, Austria). Therefore, coupled storylines of future land use and climate scenarios were developed in a transdisciplinary stakeholder process by means of questionnaire analyses and interviews with local experts from various relevant societal sectors. Resulting future land use maps for each decade were used as spatial input in the hydrological model WaSiM, to which a new module for the consideration of snow-canopy interaction processes has been added. Simulation results for three developed storylines, each combined with a moderate (A1B) and an extreme (RCP8.5) climate future, show that in a warmer and dryer climate the amount of annual simulated streamflow at the gauge of the catchment undergoes a significant reduction. The (mainly natural) reforestation of the catchment – caused by abandonment of previously cultivated areas – leads to additional losses of water by enhanced interception and evapotranspiration processes. Further cultivation of the current mountain pasture areas has a certain potential to attenuate undesirable long-term impacts of climate change on the catchment water balance.

KW - Climate change

KW - Land use

KW - Mountain hydrology

KW - Numerical modelling

KW - Regional catchment

KW - Storyline development

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85058152369&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.077

DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.077

M3 - Article

C2 - 30677940

AN - SCOPUS:85058152369

VL - 657

SP - 746

EP - 763

JO - Science of the Total Environment

JF - Science of the Total Environment

SN - 0048-9697

ER -