Details
| Originalsprache | Englisch |
|---|---|
| Seiten (von - bis) | 37-47 |
| Seitenumfang | 11 |
| Fachzeitschrift | Journal of Applied Water Engineering and Research |
| Jahrgang | 7 |
| Ausgabenummer | 1 |
| Frühes Online-Datum | 13 Sept. 2017 |
| Publikationsstatus | Veröffentlicht - 2 Jan. 2019 |
Abstract
Early planning decisions which take into account the impact of climate change have to be made under uncertainty. Thus, the explicit investigation of the level of uncertainty in climate impact research is becoming increasingly important. This article focusses on uncertainties in a climate impact assessment for the Weser estuary, Germany. The basis is a mean sea level rise scenario which is studied with a 3D baroclinic impact model. Uncertainties due to model parameters, structural limitations of the model, boundary conditions, the scenario uncertainty and variability in the impact model are discussed. The uncertainties due to natural variability and roughness are investigated by means of changes in high and low water levels. The results show that the uncertainty related to the impact model and the chosen model parameters in this study is small compared to the uncertainty induced by the natural variability and the boundary conditions.
Schlagwörter
- 3D hydrodynamic model, climate change, estuary, uncertainty, Weser
ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete
- Umweltwissenschaften (insg.)
- Gewässerkunde und -technologie
Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung
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in: Journal of Applied Water Engineering and Research, Jahrgang 7, Nr. 1, 02.01.2019, S. 37-47.
Publikation: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift › Artikel › Forschung › Peer-Review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Sources of uncertainty in estuarine climate impact modeling
AU - Zorndt, Anna
AU - Schlurmann, Torsten
N1 - Funding information: This work was supported by the Ministerium für Wissenschaft und Kultur Niedersachsen within the research project KLIFF.
PY - 2019/1/2
Y1 - 2019/1/2
N2 - Early planning decisions which take into account the impact of climate change have to be made under uncertainty. Thus, the explicit investigation of the level of uncertainty in climate impact research is becoming increasingly important. This article focusses on uncertainties in a climate impact assessment for the Weser estuary, Germany. The basis is a mean sea level rise scenario which is studied with a 3D baroclinic impact model. Uncertainties due to model parameters, structural limitations of the model, boundary conditions, the scenario uncertainty and variability in the impact model are discussed. The uncertainties due to natural variability and roughness are investigated by means of changes in high and low water levels. The results show that the uncertainty related to the impact model and the chosen model parameters in this study is small compared to the uncertainty induced by the natural variability and the boundary conditions.
AB - Early planning decisions which take into account the impact of climate change have to be made under uncertainty. Thus, the explicit investigation of the level of uncertainty in climate impact research is becoming increasingly important. This article focusses on uncertainties in a climate impact assessment for the Weser estuary, Germany. The basis is a mean sea level rise scenario which is studied with a 3D baroclinic impact model. Uncertainties due to model parameters, structural limitations of the model, boundary conditions, the scenario uncertainty and variability in the impact model are discussed. The uncertainties due to natural variability and roughness are investigated by means of changes in high and low water levels. The results show that the uncertainty related to the impact model and the chosen model parameters in this study is small compared to the uncertainty induced by the natural variability and the boundary conditions.
KW - 3D hydrodynamic model
KW - climate change
KW - estuary
KW - uncertainty
KW - Weser
KW - 3D hydrodynamic model
KW - climate change
KW - estuary
KW - uncertainty
KW - Weser
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85041632596&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1080/23249676.2017.1355756
DO - 10.1080/23249676.2017.1355756
M3 - Article
VL - 7
SP - 37
EP - 47
JO - Journal of Applied Water Engineering and Research
JF - Journal of Applied Water Engineering and Research
IS - 1
ER -