TY - JOUR

T1 - Simulation of present and future land subsidence in the Rafsanjan plain, Iran, due to groundwater overexploitation using numerical modeling and InSAR data analysis

AU - Bockstiegel, M.

AU - Richard-Cerda, J. C.

AU - Muñoz-Vega, E.

AU - Haghighi, M. H.

AU - Motagh, M.

AU - Lalehzari, R.

AU - Schulz, S.

N1 - Funding Information: We thank the European Space Agency for providing the Sentinel-1 data, and NASA/USGS for providing free access to Landsat imagery. Funding Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL.

PY - 2024/2

Y1 - 2024/2

N2 - In the Rafsanjan plain, Iran, the excessive use of groundwater for pistachio irrigation since the 1960s has led to a severe water level decline as well as land subsidence. In this study, the advantages of InSAR analyses and groundwater flow modeling are combined to improve the understanding of the subsurface processes causing groundwater-related land subsidence in several areas of the region. For this purpose, a calibration scheme for the numerical groundwater model was developed, which simultaneously accounts for hydraulic aquifer parameters and sediment mechanical properties of land subsidence and thus considers the impact of water release from aquifer compaction. Simulation results of past subsidence are calibrated with satellite-based InSAR data and further compared with leveling measurements. Modeling results show that land subsidence in this area occurs predominantly in areas with fine-grained sediments and is therefore only partly dependent on groundwater level decline. During the modeling period from 1960 to 2020, subsidence rates of up to 21 cm year−1 are simulated. Due to the almost solely inelastic compaction of the aquifer, this has already led to an irreversible aquifer storage capacity loss of 8.8 km3. Simulation results of future development scenarios indicate that although further land subsidence cannot be avoided, subsidence rates and the associated aquifer storage capacity loss can be reduced by up to 50 and 36%, respectively, by 2050 through the implementation of improved irrigation management for the pistachio orchards.

AB - In the Rafsanjan plain, Iran, the excessive use of groundwater for pistachio irrigation since the 1960s has led to a severe water level decline as well as land subsidence. In this study, the advantages of InSAR analyses and groundwater flow modeling are combined to improve the understanding of the subsurface processes causing groundwater-related land subsidence in several areas of the region. For this purpose, a calibration scheme for the numerical groundwater model was developed, which simultaneously accounts for hydraulic aquifer parameters and sediment mechanical properties of land subsidence and thus considers the impact of water release from aquifer compaction. Simulation results of past subsidence are calibrated with satellite-based InSAR data and further compared with leveling measurements. Modeling results show that land subsidence in this area occurs predominantly in areas with fine-grained sediments and is therefore only partly dependent on groundwater level decline. During the modeling period from 1960 to 2020, subsidence rates of up to 21 cm year−1 are simulated. Due to the almost solely inelastic compaction of the aquifer, this has already led to an irreversible aquifer storage capacity loss of 8.8 km3. Simulation results of future development scenarios indicate that although further land subsidence cannot be avoided, subsidence rates and the associated aquifer storage capacity loss can be reduced by up to 50 and 36%, respectively, by 2050 through the implementation of improved irrigation management for the pistachio orchards.

KW - Arid regions

KW - Groundwater hydraulics

KW - Inverse modeling

KW - Remote and satellite sensing

KW - Subsidence

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85165025229&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/s10040-023-02657-y

DO - 10.1007/s10040-023-02657-y

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85165025229

VL - 32

SP - 289

EP - 305

JO - Hydrogeology journal

JF - Hydrogeology journal

SN - 1431-2174

IS - 1

ER -