TY - JOUR

T1 - Sea-Level Rise in Northern Germany

T2 - A GIS-Based Simulation and Visualization

AU - Schuldt, Caroline

AU - Schiewe, Jochen

AU - Kröger, Johannes

N1 - Funding Information: This article represents a shortened and revised version of a master’s thesis (Schuldt 2019). The authors thank the German Aerospace Center (DLR) for offering the DEM data set used in this study.

PY - 2020/12

Y1 - 2020/12

N2 - The future sea-level rise caused by climate change will lead to coastal regions being flooded and ecological and socio-economic systems being disrupted. This study examines the question of how the sea-level rise in Northern Germany can be simulated on a regional level and visualized as a media map. The simulation is based on the TanDEM-X digital elevation model, IDW interpolated current measurements of the sea level and the vertical land movement, as well as regional sea surface elevation projections for the year 2100. Two different climate scenarios were applied based on IPCC forecasts. Particular attention was paid to transforming elevation systems into orthometric heights. In addition, the uncertainties existing in the simulation of future developments were quantified and visualized. Depending on the applied scenario, an area between 1061 and 9004 km2 will be inundated. Accordingly, the affected population varies between 5477 and 626,880 people. The calculation of the inundated areas reveals serious differences; between the various climate scenarios, as well as between the North and Baltic coasts, but above all between the assumption of a stable coastal protection on the one hand and a dike breach on the other. Based on the requirements of journalistic cartography and the specific requirements of the German broadcasting company Norddeutscher Rundfunk (NDR), static maps were developed, which will be shown as a sequence starting with the least and ending with the most severe possible impact.

AB - The future sea-level rise caused by climate change will lead to coastal regions being flooded and ecological and socio-economic systems being disrupted. This study examines the question of how the sea-level rise in Northern Germany can be simulated on a regional level and visualized as a media map. The simulation is based on the TanDEM-X digital elevation model, IDW interpolated current measurements of the sea level and the vertical land movement, as well as regional sea surface elevation projections for the year 2100. Two different climate scenarios were applied based on IPCC forecasts. Particular attention was paid to transforming elevation systems into orthometric heights. In addition, the uncertainties existing in the simulation of future developments were quantified and visualized. Depending on the applied scenario, an area between 1061 and 9004 km2 will be inundated. Accordingly, the affected population varies between 5477 and 626,880 people. The calculation of the inundated areas reveals serious differences; between the various climate scenarios, as well as between the North and Baltic coasts, but above all between the assumption of a stable coastal protection on the one hand and a dike breach on the other. Based on the requirements of journalistic cartography and the specific requirements of the German broadcasting company Norddeutscher Rundfunk (NDR), static maps were developed, which will be shown as a sequence starting with the least and ending with the most severe possible impact.

KW - GIS simulation

KW - Media maps

KW - Regional

KW - Sea-level rise

KW - Visualization

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85094913289&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/s42489-020-00059-8

DO - 10.1007/s42489-020-00059-8

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85094913289

VL - 70

SP - 145

EP - 154

JO - KN - Journal of Cartography and Geographic Information

JF - KN - Journal of Cartography and Geographic Information

SN - 2524-4957

IS - 4

ER -