Replacing the full load hours key figure for the risk assessment of wind energy projects

Publikation: Beitrag in Buch/Bericht/Sammelwerk/KonferenzbandAufsatz in KonferenzbandForschungPeer-Review

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OriginalspracheEnglisch
Titel des SammelwerksTagungsband Multikonferenz Wirtschaftsinformatik 2014, MKWI 2014
Herausgeber/-innenDennis Kundisch, Lars Beckmann, Leena Suhl
Seiten949-961
Seitenumfang13
ISBN (elektronisch)9783000453113
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 2014
VeranstaltungMultikonferenz Wirtschaftsinformatik, MKWI 2014 - Multi-Conference on Business Informatics, MKWI 2014 - Paderborn, Deutschland
Dauer: 26 Feb. 201428 Feb. 2014

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NameTagungsband Multikonferenz Wirtschaftsinformatik 2014, MKWI 2014

Abstract

In scientific literature, profitability analyses of on-and offshore wind energy projects and assessments of general conditions for such projects usually make use of the full load hours (FLH) key figure to determine the annually generated electricity. This procedure leads to adequate results, if only the expected value of each parameter is taken into account. However, it is difficult to choose an adequate type of distribution and to define suitable distribution parameters for the FLH when project risks are considered. In this paper, a multi factor model using the more basic parameter of the average wind speed and a Weibull distribution is provided. This approach is integrated into a discounted cash flow (DCF) model on which a Monte Carlo simulation is applied. Finally, a case study for an offshore wind park in the German North Sea is conducted. It is shown that the application of the presented approach leads to more precise distributions of the outcomes than the standard analysis with FLH.

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Replacing the full load hours key figure for the risk assessment of wind energy projects. / Koukal, André; Lange, Stefan; Breitner, Michael H.
Tagungsband Multikonferenz Wirtschaftsinformatik 2014, MKWI 2014. Hrsg. / Dennis Kundisch; Lars Beckmann; Leena Suhl. 2014. S. 949-961 (Tagungsband Multikonferenz Wirtschaftsinformatik 2014, MKWI 2014).

Publikation: Beitrag in Buch/Bericht/Sammelwerk/KonferenzbandAufsatz in KonferenzbandForschungPeer-Review

Koukal, A, Lange, S & Breitner, MH 2014, Replacing the full load hours key figure for the risk assessment of wind energy projects. in D Kundisch, L Beckmann & L Suhl (Hrsg.), Tagungsband Multikonferenz Wirtschaftsinformatik 2014, MKWI 2014. Tagungsband Multikonferenz Wirtschaftsinformatik 2014, MKWI 2014, S. 949-961, Multikonferenz Wirtschaftsinformatik, MKWI 2014 - Multi-Conference on Business Informatics, MKWI 2014, Paderborn, Deutschland, 26 Feb. 2014.
Koukal, A., Lange, S., & Breitner, M. H. (2014). Replacing the full load hours key figure for the risk assessment of wind energy projects. In D. Kundisch, L. Beckmann, & L. Suhl (Hrsg.), Tagungsband Multikonferenz Wirtschaftsinformatik 2014, MKWI 2014 (S. 949-961). (Tagungsband Multikonferenz Wirtschaftsinformatik 2014, MKWI 2014).
Koukal A, Lange S, Breitner MH. Replacing the full load hours key figure for the risk assessment of wind energy projects. in Kundisch D, Beckmann L, Suhl L, Hrsg., Tagungsband Multikonferenz Wirtschaftsinformatik 2014, MKWI 2014. 2014. S. 949-961. (Tagungsband Multikonferenz Wirtschaftsinformatik 2014, MKWI 2014).
Koukal, André ; Lange, Stefan ; Breitner, Michael H. / Replacing the full load hours key figure for the risk assessment of wind energy projects. Tagungsband Multikonferenz Wirtschaftsinformatik 2014, MKWI 2014. Hrsg. / Dennis Kundisch ; Lars Beckmann ; Leena Suhl. 2014. S. 949-961 (Tagungsband Multikonferenz Wirtschaftsinformatik 2014, MKWI 2014).
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title = "Replacing the full load hours key figure for the risk assessment of wind energy projects",
abstract = "In scientific literature, profitability analyses of on-and offshore wind energy projects and assessments of general conditions for such projects usually make use of the full load hours (FLH) key figure to determine the annually generated electricity. This procedure leads to adequate results, if only the expected value of each parameter is taken into account. However, it is difficult to choose an adequate type of distribution and to define suitable distribution parameters for the FLH when project risks are considered. In this paper, a multi factor model using the more basic parameter of the average wind speed and a Weibull distribution is provided. This approach is integrated into a discounted cash flow (DCF) model on which a Monte Carlo simulation is applied. Finally, a case study for an offshore wind park in the German North Sea is conducted. It is shown that the application of the presented approach leads to more precise distributions of the outcomes than the standard analysis with FLH.",
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T1 - Replacing the full load hours key figure for the risk assessment of wind energy projects

AU - Koukal, André

AU - Lange, Stefan

AU - Breitner, Michael H.

N1 - Copyright: Copyright 2017 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

PY - 2014

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N2 - In scientific literature, profitability analyses of on-and offshore wind energy projects and assessments of general conditions for such projects usually make use of the full load hours (FLH) key figure to determine the annually generated electricity. This procedure leads to adequate results, if only the expected value of each parameter is taken into account. However, it is difficult to choose an adequate type of distribution and to define suitable distribution parameters for the FLH when project risks are considered. In this paper, a multi factor model using the more basic parameter of the average wind speed and a Weibull distribution is provided. This approach is integrated into a discounted cash flow (DCF) model on which a Monte Carlo simulation is applied. Finally, a case study for an offshore wind park in the German North Sea is conducted. It is shown that the application of the presented approach leads to more precise distributions of the outcomes than the standard analysis with FLH.

AB - In scientific literature, profitability analyses of on-and offshore wind energy projects and assessments of general conditions for such projects usually make use of the full load hours (FLH) key figure to determine the annually generated electricity. This procedure leads to adequate results, if only the expected value of each parameter is taken into account. However, it is difficult to choose an adequate type of distribution and to define suitable distribution parameters for the FLH when project risks are considered. In this paper, a multi factor model using the more basic parameter of the average wind speed and a Weibull distribution is provided. This approach is integrated into a discounted cash flow (DCF) model on which a Monte Carlo simulation is applied. Finally, a case study for an offshore wind park in the German North Sea is conducted. It is shown that the application of the presented approach leads to more precise distributions of the outcomes than the standard analysis with FLH.

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Y2 - 26 February 2014 through 28 February 2014

ER -

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