TY - JOUR

T1 - Reliability Analysis of an Axial Compressor Based on One-Dimensional Flow Modeling and Survival Signature

AU - Miro, S.

AU - Willeke, Tobias

AU - Broggi, Matteo

AU - Seume, Jörg Reinhart

AU - Beer, Michael

N1 - Funding information: The authors kindly thank the German Research Foundation (DFG) (Funder ID: 10.13039/501100001659) for the financial support to accomplish the research project D5 “Risk Assessment of Regeneration Paths for Supporting Simultaneous Decisions ”aneous Decisionsn be computationally very demanding— Regeneration of Complex Capital Goods.

PY - 2019/6/10

Y1 - 2019/6/10

N2 - This paper presents a procedure for the reliability analysis of a multistage axial compressor regarding blade-specific roughness effects, based on the survival signature approach. As a result, a time-dependent evolution of the system reliability is obtained along with a prioritization technique for monitoring and regeneration of the rough blade rows by capturing the most critical system components. For this purpose, a one-dimensional flow model is developed and utilized to evaluate the aerodynamic influences of the blade-specific roughness on the system performance parameters, namely the overall pressure ratio and the isentropic efficiency. In order to achieve transparency and high numerical efficiency for time-dependent analyses in practice, the physics-based compressor model is translated into an illustrative, function-based system model. This system model is established by conducting a Monte Carlo simulation along with a variance-based global sensitivity analysis, with the input variables being the row-specific blade roughness. Based on the system model, the roughness impact in different blade-rows is ranked by the relative importance (RI) index, and the corresponding time-dependent reliability of the compressor system in terms of pressure ratio and efficiency is estimated through its survival function. Furthermore, uncertainties in the roughness-induced failure rates of the components are modeled using imprecise probabilities. Consequently, bounds on the reliability function and the importance indices for the blade-surface roughness in each blade row are captured, which enhances the decision-making process for maintenance activities under uncertainty.

AB - This paper presents a procedure for the reliability analysis of a multistage axial compressor regarding blade-specific roughness effects, based on the survival signature approach. As a result, a time-dependent evolution of the system reliability is obtained along with a prioritization technique for monitoring and regeneration of the rough blade rows by capturing the most critical system components. For this purpose, a one-dimensional flow model is developed and utilized to evaluate the aerodynamic influences of the blade-specific roughness on the system performance parameters, namely the overall pressure ratio and the isentropic efficiency. In order to achieve transparency and high numerical efficiency for time-dependent analyses in practice, the physics-based compressor model is translated into an illustrative, function-based system model. This system model is established by conducting a Monte Carlo simulation along with a variance-based global sensitivity analysis, with the input variables being the row-specific blade roughness. Based on the system model, the roughness impact in different blade-rows is ranked by the relative importance (RI) index, and the corresponding time-dependent reliability of the compressor system in terms of pressure ratio and efficiency is estimated through its survival function. Furthermore, uncertainties in the roughness-induced failure rates of the components are modeled using imprecise probabilities. Consequently, bounds on the reliability function and the importance indices for the blade-surface roughness in each blade row are captured, which enhances the decision-making process for maintenance activities under uncertainty.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85067477775&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1115/1.4043150

DO - 10.1115/1.4043150

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85067477775

VL - 5

JO - Procedia CIRP

JF - Procedia CIRP

SN - 2212-8271

IS - 3

M1 - 031003

ER -