TY - JOUR

T1 - Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

AU - Hanzer, Florian

AU - Förster, Kristian

AU - Nemec, Johanna

AU - Strasser, Ulrich

N1 - Funding Information: Acknowledgements. This work was carried out within the frame-work of the projects “W01 MUSICALS II – Multiscale Snow/Ice Melt Discharge Simulation into Alpine Reservoirs”, carried out in the research programme of alpS – Centre for Climate Change Adaptation in Innsbruck, and “HydroGeM3”, financed by the Austrian Academy of Sciences. The computational results presented have been achieved in part using the Vienna Scientific Cluster (VSC). The authors want to thank the COMET research programme of the Austrian Research Promotion Agency (FFG), the TIWAG – Tiroler Wasserkraft AG, and the Austrian Academy of Sciences. Meteorological and hydrological data were provided by the Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), the Hydrographic Service of Tyrol, the TIWAG – Tiroler Wasserkraft AG, the Commission for Glaciology of the Bavarian Academy of Sciences and Humanities, and the Autonomous Province of Bozen/Bolzano. We would also like to thank Matthias Huttenlau for managing the MUSICALS II project and for many helpful discussions and Johannes Schöber for valuable comments during the preparation of the manuscript. Finally, we wish to thank two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments that helped to improve the manuscript.

PY - 2018/3/1

Y1 - 2018/3/1

N2 - A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios as forcing data, making this - to date - the most detailed study for this region in terms of process representation and range of considered climate projections. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km2, 862-3770 m a.s.l.) as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11-165 km2) and glacierization (24-77 %). Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases (0-20 % depending on the emission scenario) of mean annual snow water equivalent in high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l.) until the end of the century. The largest decreases, amounting to up to 25-80 %, are projected to occur in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4-20 % of the initial (as of 2006) ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA) runoff will change little during the early 21st century (2011-2040) with simulated decreases (compared to 1997-2006) of up to 11 % (total) and 13 % (summer) depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total) and 47 % (summer) towards the end of the century (2071-2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June.

AB - A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios as forcing data, making this - to date - the most detailed study for this region in terms of process representation and range of considered climate projections. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km2, 862-3770 m a.s.l.) as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11-165 km2) and glacierization (24-77 %). Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases (0-20 % depending on the emission scenario) of mean annual snow water equivalent in high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l.) until the end of the century. The largest decreases, amounting to up to 25-80 %, are projected to occur in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4-20 % of the initial (as of 2006) ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA) runoff will change little during the early 21st century (2011-2040) with simulated decreases (compared to 1997-2006) of up to 11 % (total) and 13 % (summer) depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total) and 47 % (summer) towards the end of the century (2071-2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85042689167&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.5194/hess-22-1593-2018

DO - 10.5194/hess-22-1593-2018

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85042689167

VL - 22

SP - 1593

EP - 1614

JO - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

JF - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

SN - 1027-5606

IS - 2

ER -