Details
| Originalsprache | Englisch |
|---|---|
| Aufsatznummer | 024028 |
| Fachzeitschrift | Environmental research letters |
| Jahrgang | 17 |
| Ausgabenummer | 2 |
| Publikationsstatus | Veröffentlicht - 11 Feb. 2022 |
Abstract
Assessing the risk of yield loss in African drought-affected regions is key to identify feasible solutions for stable crop production. Recent studies have demonstrated that Copula-based probabilistic methods are well suited for such assessment owing to reasonably inferring important properties in terms of exceedance probability and joint dependence of different characterization. However, insufficient attention has been given to quantifying the probability of yield loss and determining the contribution of climatic factors. This study applies the Copula theory to describe the dependence between drought and crop yield anomalies for rainfed maize, millet, and sorghum crops in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The environmental policy integrated climate model, calibrated with Food and Agriculture Organization country-level yield data, was used to simulate yields across SSA (1980-2012). The results showed that the severity of yield loss due to drought had a higher magnitude than the severity of drought itself. Sensitivity analysis to identify factors contributing to drought and high-temperature stresses for all crops showed that the amount of precipitation during vegetation and grain filling was the main driver of crop yield loss, and the effect of temperature was stronger for sorghum than for maize and millet. The results demonstrate the added value of probabilistic methods for drought-impact assessment. For future studies, we recommend looking into factors influencing drought and high-temperature stresses as individual/concurrent climatic extremes.
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- Energie (insg.)
- Erneuerbare Energien, Nachhaltigkeit und Umwelt
- Umweltwissenschaften (insg.)
- Medizin (insg.)
- Öffentliche Gesundheit, Umwelt- und Arbeitsmedizin
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in: Environmental research letters, Jahrgang 17, Nr. 2, 024028, 11.02.2022.
Publikation: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift › Artikel › Forschung › Peer-Review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Probabilistic modeling of crop-yield loss risk under drought
T2 - A spatial showcase for sub-Saharan Africa
AU - Kamali, Bahareh
AU - Jahanbakhshi, Farshid
AU - Dogaru, Diana
AU - Dietrich, Jörg
AU - Nendel, Claas
AU - Aghakouchak, Amir
PY - 2022/2/11
Y1 - 2022/2/11
N2 - Assessing the risk of yield loss in African drought-affected regions is key to identify feasible solutions for stable crop production. Recent studies have demonstrated that Copula-based probabilistic methods are well suited for such assessment owing to reasonably inferring important properties in terms of exceedance probability and joint dependence of different characterization. However, insufficient attention has been given to quantifying the probability of yield loss and determining the contribution of climatic factors. This study applies the Copula theory to describe the dependence between drought and crop yield anomalies for rainfed maize, millet, and sorghum crops in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The environmental policy integrated climate model, calibrated with Food and Agriculture Organization country-level yield data, was used to simulate yields across SSA (1980-2012). The results showed that the severity of yield loss due to drought had a higher magnitude than the severity of drought itself. Sensitivity analysis to identify factors contributing to drought and high-temperature stresses for all crops showed that the amount of precipitation during vegetation and grain filling was the main driver of crop yield loss, and the effect of temperature was stronger for sorghum than for maize and millet. The results demonstrate the added value of probabilistic methods for drought-impact assessment. For future studies, we recommend looking into factors influencing drought and high-temperature stresses as individual/concurrent climatic extremes.
AB - Assessing the risk of yield loss in African drought-affected regions is key to identify feasible solutions for stable crop production. Recent studies have demonstrated that Copula-based probabilistic methods are well suited for such assessment owing to reasonably inferring important properties in terms of exceedance probability and joint dependence of different characterization. However, insufficient attention has been given to quantifying the probability of yield loss and determining the contribution of climatic factors. This study applies the Copula theory to describe the dependence between drought and crop yield anomalies for rainfed maize, millet, and sorghum crops in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The environmental policy integrated climate model, calibrated with Food and Agriculture Organization country-level yield data, was used to simulate yields across SSA (1980-2012). The results showed that the severity of yield loss due to drought had a higher magnitude than the severity of drought itself. Sensitivity analysis to identify factors contributing to drought and high-temperature stresses for all crops showed that the amount of precipitation during vegetation and grain filling was the main driver of crop yield loss, and the effect of temperature was stronger for sorghum than for maize and millet. The results demonstrate the added value of probabilistic methods for drought-impact assessment. For future studies, we recommend looking into factors influencing drought and high-temperature stresses as individual/concurrent climatic extremes.
KW - Copula theory
KW - crop model
KW - drought stress
KW - joint probability
KW - risk
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85125463802&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ec1
DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ec1
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85125463802
VL - 17
JO - Environmental research letters
JF - Environmental research letters
SN - 1748-9318
IS - 2
M1 - 024028
ER -