Details
| Originalsprache | Englisch |
|---|---|
| Aufsatznummer | 012005 |
| Fachzeitschrift | Journal of Physics: Conference Series |
| Jahrgang | 1669 |
| Ausgabenummer | 1 |
| Publikationsstatus | Veröffentlicht - 2020 |
| Veranstaltung | 17th Deep Sea Offshore Wind R and D Conference, DeepWind 2020 - Trondheim, Norwegen Dauer: 15 Jan. 2020 → 17 Jan. 2020 |
Abstract
An accurate numerical simulation of the structural lifetime of offshore wind turbines is a challenging task due to several reasons. One of them is the uncertainty of met-ocean conditions acting on a turbine, e.g. wind and waves. This uncertainty can be divided into two kinds of uncertainty: aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. If both types of uncertainty occur, this is called polymorphic uncertainty. According to the state of the art, for met-ocean conditions, mainly aleatory uncertainty is considered or both types of uncertainty are modelled using a single probability density function. This leads to a simplification of the actual uncertainty, whose effect on the lifetime estimation has not been analysed so far. In that sense, in this work, the influence of various uncertainty models for met-ocean conditions on long-term damage equivalent loads (DELs) - representing the wind turbine fatigue lifetime - is investigated. For this purpose, different uncertainty models for met-ocean conditions are derived using real measurement data. Not only purely probabilistic models are applied, but imprecise probabilities - here interval random variables - as well. It is shown that the uncertainty models have a considerable influence on the fatigue life of offshore wind turbines. Especially, the large fatigue load intervals, which are determined, clarify the importance of a well-founded decisions regarding uncertainty modelling of met-ocean conditions.
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in: Journal of Physics: Conference Series, Jahrgang 1669, Nr. 1, 012005, 2020.
Publikation: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift › Konferenzaufsatz in Fachzeitschrift › Forschung › Peer-Review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Polymorphic uncertainty in met-ocean conditions and the influence on fatigue loads
AU - Hübler, Clemens
AU - Müller, Franziska
AU - Rolfes, Raimund
N1 - Funding information: We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) for the ENERGIZE project (436547100) and the Leibniz University Hannover for the MetaWind project within the program “Leibniz Young Investigator Grants”.
PY - 2020
Y1 - 2020
N2 - An accurate numerical simulation of the structural lifetime of offshore wind turbines is a challenging task due to several reasons. One of them is the uncertainty of met-ocean conditions acting on a turbine, e.g. wind and waves. This uncertainty can be divided into two kinds of uncertainty: aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. If both types of uncertainty occur, this is called polymorphic uncertainty. According to the state of the art, for met-ocean conditions, mainly aleatory uncertainty is considered or both types of uncertainty are modelled using a single probability density function. This leads to a simplification of the actual uncertainty, whose effect on the lifetime estimation has not been analysed so far. In that sense, in this work, the influence of various uncertainty models for met-ocean conditions on long-term damage equivalent loads (DELs) - representing the wind turbine fatigue lifetime - is investigated. For this purpose, different uncertainty models for met-ocean conditions are derived using real measurement data. Not only purely probabilistic models are applied, but imprecise probabilities - here interval random variables - as well. It is shown that the uncertainty models have a considerable influence on the fatigue life of offshore wind turbines. Especially, the large fatigue load intervals, which are determined, clarify the importance of a well-founded decisions regarding uncertainty modelling of met-ocean conditions.
AB - An accurate numerical simulation of the structural lifetime of offshore wind turbines is a challenging task due to several reasons. One of them is the uncertainty of met-ocean conditions acting on a turbine, e.g. wind and waves. This uncertainty can be divided into two kinds of uncertainty: aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. If both types of uncertainty occur, this is called polymorphic uncertainty. According to the state of the art, for met-ocean conditions, mainly aleatory uncertainty is considered or both types of uncertainty are modelled using a single probability density function. This leads to a simplification of the actual uncertainty, whose effect on the lifetime estimation has not been analysed so far. In that sense, in this work, the influence of various uncertainty models for met-ocean conditions on long-term damage equivalent loads (DELs) - representing the wind turbine fatigue lifetime - is investigated. For this purpose, different uncertainty models for met-ocean conditions are derived using real measurement data. Not only purely probabilistic models are applied, but imprecise probabilities - here interval random variables - as well. It is shown that the uncertainty models have a considerable influence on the fatigue life of offshore wind turbines. Especially, the large fatigue load intervals, which are determined, clarify the importance of a well-founded decisions regarding uncertainty modelling of met-ocean conditions.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85096464547&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1088/1742-6596/1669/1/012005
DO - 10.1088/1742-6596/1669/1/012005
M3 - Conference article
AN - SCOPUS:85096464547
VL - 1669
JO - Journal of Physics: Conference Series
JF - Journal of Physics: Conference Series
SN - 1742-6588
IS - 1
M1 - 012005
T2 - 17th Deep Sea Offshore Wind R and D Conference, DeepWind 2020
Y2 - 15 January 2020 through 17 January 2020
ER -