TY - JOUR

T1 - Planning of Reserve Storage to Compensate for Forecast Errors

AU - Koch, Julian

AU - Bensmann, Astrid

AU - Eckert, Christoph

AU - Rath, Michael

AU - Hanke-Rauschenbach, Richard

N1 - Funding Information: M. Rath acknowledges the support of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) within the WindNODE subproject “Construction, Integration, and Operation of a Power-to-Heat/Cold Plant at the EUREF-Campus with Showcase Function” (grant number 03SIN515), executed by GASAG Solution Plus GmbH, with funding provided as part of the project WindNODE, which is again part of the funding program “Intelligent Energy Showcase––Digital Agenda for the Energy Transition” (SINTEG, grant number 01171449/1).

PY - 2024/2/2

Y1 - 2024/2/2

N2 - Forecasts and their corresponding optimized operation plans for energy plants never match perfectly, especially if they have a horizon of several days. In this paper, we suggest a concept to cope with uncertain load forecasts by reserving a share of the energy storage system for short-term balancing. Depending on the amount of uncertainty in the load forecasts, we schedule the energy system with a specific reduced storage capacity at the day-ahead market. For the day of delivery, we examine the optimal thresholds when the remaining capacity should be used to balance differences between forecast and reality at the intraday market. With the help of a case study for a simple sector-coupled energy system with a demand for cooling, it is shown that the energy costs could be reduced by up to 10% using the optimal reserve share. The optimal reserve share depends on the forecast quality and the time series of loads and prices. Generally, the trends and qualitative results can be transferred to other systems. However, of course, an individual evaluation before the realization is recommended.

AB - Forecasts and their corresponding optimized operation plans for energy plants never match perfectly, especially if they have a horizon of several days. In this paper, we suggest a concept to cope with uncertain load forecasts by reserving a share of the energy storage system for short-term balancing. Depending on the amount of uncertainty in the load forecasts, we schedule the energy system with a specific reduced storage capacity at the day-ahead market. For the day of delivery, we examine the optimal thresholds when the remaining capacity should be used to balance differences between forecast and reality at the intraday market. With the help of a case study for a simple sector-coupled energy system with a demand for cooling, it is shown that the energy costs could be reduced by up to 10% using the optimal reserve share. The optimal reserve share depends on the forecast quality and the time series of loads and prices. Generally, the trends and qualitative results can be transferred to other systems. However, of course, an individual evaluation before the realization is recommended.

KW - day-ahead and intraday energy market

KW - energy management

KW - energy storage system

KW - multienergy system

KW - uncertain load forecast

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85184505994&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.3390/en17030720

DO - 10.3390/en17030720

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85184505994

VL - 17

JO - ENERGIES

JF - ENERGIES

SN - 1996-1073

IS - 3

M1 - 720

ER -