Details
| Originalsprache | Englisch |
|---|---|
| Titel des Sammelwerks | Proceedings of the 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2019 |
| Herausgeber/-innen | Michael Beer, Enrico Zio |
| Seiten | 3209-3216 |
| Seitenumfang | 8 |
| ISBN (elektronisch) | 9789811127243 |
| Publikationsstatus | Veröffentlicht - 2020 |
| Veranstaltung | 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2019 - Leibniz University Hannover, Hannover, Deutschland Dauer: 22 Sept. 2019 → 26 Sept. 2019 |
Abstract
Due to limitations of the current prescriptive design approach for concrete durability, performance-based durability design of concrete structures is increasingly gaining in importance. Performance-based design approaches allow a quantitative estimation of durability by taking into account the degradation processes caused by environmental loads as well as material properties, including their alteration in time and their variability. In order to address uncertainties associated with environmental loads and material properties, these approaches are usually based on a reliability analysis, in which uncertainties are handled by probabilistic modeling. However, since available information is sometimes limited (epistemic uncertainty), the appropriate probabilistic characterization of model parameters can be challenging or even impossible. In theses cases, imprecise probabilities provide an opportunity to consider epistemic uncertainty along with aleatory uncertainty (inherent randomness). Based on the theory of imprecise probabilities, this paper aims to study the role of epistemic uncertainty in durability design of concrete structures. In this context, the emphasis is on concrete structures in acidic environments corresponding to a chemical attack of the structure. By means of an illustrative example, the common reliability analysis based on probabilistic models is compared with probability bound analysis with probability boxes. The results indicate the great influence of epistemic uncertainty when available data and information are limited. Furthermore, it is shown that the determination of probabilistic models on ambiguous assumption can lead to false reliability estimates. Therefore, epistemic uncertainty should explicitly be taken into account if, due to the limited availability of data, probabilistic models cannot fully be determined.
ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete
- Ingenieurwesen (insg.)
- Sicherheit, Risiko, Zuverlässigkeit und Qualität
- Sozialwissenschaften (insg.)
- Sicherheitsforschung
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Proceedings of the 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2019. Hrsg. / Michael Beer; Enrico Zio. 2020. S. 3209-3216.
Publikation: Beitrag in Buch/Bericht/Sammelwerk/Konferenzband › Aufsatz in Konferenzband › Forschung
}
TY - GEN
T1 - Performance-based durability design of concrete structures under uncertainty
AU - Gerlach, Jesko
AU - Lohaus, Ludger
AU - Haist, Michael
N1 - Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2019 European Safety and Reliability Association. Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2020
Y1 - 2020
N2 - Due to limitations of the current prescriptive design approach for concrete durability, performance-based durability design of concrete structures is increasingly gaining in importance. Performance-based design approaches allow a quantitative estimation of durability by taking into account the degradation processes caused by environmental loads as well as material properties, including their alteration in time and their variability. In order to address uncertainties associated with environmental loads and material properties, these approaches are usually based on a reliability analysis, in which uncertainties are handled by probabilistic modeling. However, since available information is sometimes limited (epistemic uncertainty), the appropriate probabilistic characterization of model parameters can be challenging or even impossible. In theses cases, imprecise probabilities provide an opportunity to consider epistemic uncertainty along with aleatory uncertainty (inherent randomness). Based on the theory of imprecise probabilities, this paper aims to study the role of epistemic uncertainty in durability design of concrete structures. In this context, the emphasis is on concrete structures in acidic environments corresponding to a chemical attack of the structure. By means of an illustrative example, the common reliability analysis based on probabilistic models is compared with probability bound analysis with probability boxes. The results indicate the great influence of epistemic uncertainty when available data and information are limited. Furthermore, it is shown that the determination of probabilistic models on ambiguous assumption can lead to false reliability estimates. Therefore, epistemic uncertainty should explicitly be taken into account if, due to the limited availability of data, probabilistic models cannot fully be determined.
AB - Due to limitations of the current prescriptive design approach for concrete durability, performance-based durability design of concrete structures is increasingly gaining in importance. Performance-based design approaches allow a quantitative estimation of durability by taking into account the degradation processes caused by environmental loads as well as material properties, including their alteration in time and their variability. In order to address uncertainties associated with environmental loads and material properties, these approaches are usually based on a reliability analysis, in which uncertainties are handled by probabilistic modeling. However, since available information is sometimes limited (epistemic uncertainty), the appropriate probabilistic characterization of model parameters can be challenging or even impossible. In theses cases, imprecise probabilities provide an opportunity to consider epistemic uncertainty along with aleatory uncertainty (inherent randomness). Based on the theory of imprecise probabilities, this paper aims to study the role of epistemic uncertainty in durability design of concrete structures. In this context, the emphasis is on concrete structures in acidic environments corresponding to a chemical attack of the structure. By means of an illustrative example, the common reliability analysis based on probabilistic models is compared with probability bound analysis with probability boxes. The results indicate the great influence of epistemic uncertainty when available data and information are limited. Furthermore, it is shown that the determination of probabilistic models on ambiguous assumption can lead to false reliability estimates. Therefore, epistemic uncertainty should explicitly be taken into account if, due to the limited availability of data, probabilistic models cannot fully be determined.
KW - Chemical attack
KW - Concrete structures
KW - Durability design
KW - Imprecise probabilities
KW - Probability boxes
KW - Reliability
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85089176278&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3850/978-981-11-2724-3_0918-cd
DO - 10.3850/978-981-11-2724-3_0918-cd
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85089176278
SP - 3209
EP - 3216
BT - Proceedings of the 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2019
A2 - Beer, Michael
A2 - Zio, Enrico
T2 - 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2019
Y2 - 22 September 2019 through 26 September 2019
ER -