Details
| Originalsprache | Englisch |
|---|---|
| Aufsatznummer | e2009 |
| Fachzeitschrift | Meteorological applications |
| Jahrgang | 28 |
| Ausgabenummer | 4 |
| Publikationsstatus | Veröffentlicht - 1 Juli 2021 |
| Extern publiziert | Ja |
Abstract
Although the Urmia Lake has undergone remarkable drought conditions within the past decades mainly due to climate change, drought studies covering the entire Urmia Lake Basin and all drought aspects are lacking. The present study investigated the spatial and temporal drought conditions in the Urmia Lake Basin for the past (1988–2017) and future (2021–2050 and 2051–2080) periods using five general circulation models (GCMs) under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were compared. The SPEI predicted more drought events than the SPI, and it seemed to be a more suitable drought index than the SPI for the basin. In general, the future periods would encounter less drought conditions in terms of significant drought trends and duration than the observed period under all scenarios, but the frequency of quarterly severe drought events in the future periods would be higher than in the observed period. Furthermore, the stations Urmia (western bank) and Tabriz and Maragheh (eastern banks) would face the highest frequency of different types of quarterly drought events in the future periods compared with the observed period. The predicted high frequencies of drought events for the future periods can intensify the current low water level situation of the Urmia Lake, which seriously threatens all types of ecosystems in the basin. Therefore, serious actions need to be taken into account for efficient ecosystem and water resources management in the basin.
ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete
- Erdkunde und Planetologie (insg.)
- Atmosphärenwissenschaften
Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung
Zitieren
- Standard
- Harvard
- Apa
- Vancouver
- BibTex
- RIS
in: Meteorological applications, Jahrgang 28, Nr. 4, e2009, 01.07.2021.
Publikation: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift › Artikel › Forschung › Peer-Review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Past and future drought trends, duration, and frequency in the semi-arid Urmia Lake Basin under a changing climate
AU - Mirgol, Behnam
AU - Nazari, Meisam
AU - Etedali, Hadi Ramezani
AU - Zamanian, Kazem
N1 - Funding information: We are grateful to the German Federal Environmental Foundation (Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt, DBU) for funding Meisam Nazari during preparation of the manuscript. Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL.
PY - 2021/7/1
Y1 - 2021/7/1
N2 - Although the Urmia Lake has undergone remarkable drought conditions within the past decades mainly due to climate change, drought studies covering the entire Urmia Lake Basin and all drought aspects are lacking. The present study investigated the spatial and temporal drought conditions in the Urmia Lake Basin for the past (1988–2017) and future (2021–2050 and 2051–2080) periods using five general circulation models (GCMs) under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were compared. The SPEI predicted more drought events than the SPI, and it seemed to be a more suitable drought index than the SPI for the basin. In general, the future periods would encounter less drought conditions in terms of significant drought trends and duration than the observed period under all scenarios, but the frequency of quarterly severe drought events in the future periods would be higher than in the observed period. Furthermore, the stations Urmia (western bank) and Tabriz and Maragheh (eastern banks) would face the highest frequency of different types of quarterly drought events in the future periods compared with the observed period. The predicted high frequencies of drought events for the future periods can intensify the current low water level situation of the Urmia Lake, which seriously threatens all types of ecosystems in the basin. Therefore, serious actions need to be taken into account for efficient ecosystem and water resources management in the basin.
AB - Although the Urmia Lake has undergone remarkable drought conditions within the past decades mainly due to climate change, drought studies covering the entire Urmia Lake Basin and all drought aspects are lacking. The present study investigated the spatial and temporal drought conditions in the Urmia Lake Basin for the past (1988–2017) and future (2021–2050 and 2051–2080) periods using five general circulation models (GCMs) under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were compared. The SPEI predicted more drought events than the SPI, and it seemed to be a more suitable drought index than the SPI for the basin. In general, the future periods would encounter less drought conditions in terms of significant drought trends and duration than the observed period under all scenarios, but the frequency of quarterly severe drought events in the future periods would be higher than in the observed period. Furthermore, the stations Urmia (western bank) and Tabriz and Maragheh (eastern banks) would face the highest frequency of different types of quarterly drought events in the future periods compared with the observed period. The predicted high frequencies of drought events for the future periods can intensify the current low water level situation of the Urmia Lake, which seriously threatens all types of ecosystems in the basin. Therefore, serious actions need to be taken into account for efficient ecosystem and water resources management in the basin.
KW - drought
KW - LARS-WG
KW - precipitation
KW - SPEI
KW - SPI
KW - temperature
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85113650238&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1002/met.2009
DO - 10.1002/met.2009
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85113650238
VL - 28
JO - Meteorological applications
JF - Meteorological applications
SN - 1350-4827
IS - 4
M1 - e2009
ER -