Nonlinear time series analysis: Towards an effective forecast of rogue waves

Publikation: Beitrag in Buch/Bericht/Sammelwerk/KonferenzbandAufsatz in KonferenzbandForschungPeer-Review

Autoren

Externe Organisationen

  • Max-Born-Institut für Nichtlineare Optik und Kurzzeitspektroskopie (MBI)
  • Weierstraß-Institut für Angewandte Analysis und Stochastik (WIAS) Leibniz-Institut im Forschungsverbund Berlin e. V.
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Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Titel des SammelwerksReal-Time Measurements, Rogue Events, and Emerging Applications
Herausgeber/-innenDaniel R. Solli, Daniel R. Solli, John M. Dudley, Bahram Jalali, Sergei K. Turitsyn
Herausgeber (Verlag)SPIE
ISBN (elektronisch)9781628419672
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 9 März 2016
VeranstaltungReal-Time Measurements, Rogue Events, and Emerging Applications - San Francisco, USA / Vereinigte Staaten
Dauer: 15 Feb. 201616 Feb. 2016

Publikationsreihe

NameProceedings of SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering
Band9732
ISSN (Print)0277-786X
ISSN (elektronisch)1996-756X

Abstract

Rogue waves are extremely large waves that exceed any expectation based on long-term observation and Gaussian statistics. Ocean rogue waves exceed the significant wave height in the ocean by a factor 2. Similar phenomena have been observed in a multiplicity of optical systems. While the optical systems show a much higher frequency of rogue events than the ocean, it appears nevertheless questionable what conclusions can be drawn for the prediction of ocean rogue waves. Here we tackle the problem from a different perspective and analyze the predictability of rogue events in two optical systems as well as in the ocean using nonlinear time-series analysis. Our analysis is exclusively based on experimental data. The results appear rather surprising as the optical rogue wave scenario of fiber-based supercontinuum generation does not allow any prediction whereas real ocean rogue waves and a multifilament scenario do bear a considerable amount of determinism, which allows, at least in principle, the prediction of extreme events. It becomes further clear that there exist two fundamentally different types of rogue-wave supporting systems. One class of rogue waves is obviously seeded by quantum fluctuations whereas in the other class, linear random interference of waves seems to prevail.

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete

Zitieren

Nonlinear time series analysis: Towards an effective forecast of rogue waves. / Steinmeyer, Günter; Birkholz, Simon; Brée, Carsten et al.
Real-Time Measurements, Rogue Events, and Emerging Applications. Hrsg. / Daniel R. Solli; Daniel R. Solli; John M. Dudley; Bahram Jalali; Sergei K. Turitsyn. SPIE, 2016. 973205 (Proceedings of SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering; Band 9732).

Publikation: Beitrag in Buch/Bericht/Sammelwerk/KonferenzbandAufsatz in KonferenzbandForschungPeer-Review

Steinmeyer, G, Birkholz, S, Brée, C & Demircan, A 2016, Nonlinear time series analysis: Towards an effective forecast of rogue waves. in DR Solli, DR Solli, JM Dudley, B Jalali & SK Turitsyn (Hrsg.), Real-Time Measurements, Rogue Events, and Emerging Applications., 973205, Proceedings of SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering, Bd. 9732, SPIE, Real-Time Measurements, Rogue Events, and Emerging Applications, San Francisco, USA / Vereinigte Staaten, 15 Feb. 2016. https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2208251
Steinmeyer, G., Birkholz, S., Brée, C., & Demircan, A. (2016). Nonlinear time series analysis: Towards an effective forecast of rogue waves. In D. R. Solli, D. R. Solli, J. M. Dudley, B. Jalali, & S. K. Turitsyn (Hrsg.), Real-Time Measurements, Rogue Events, and Emerging Applications Artikel 973205 (Proceedings of SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering; Band 9732). SPIE. https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2208251
Steinmeyer G, Birkholz S, Brée C, Demircan A. Nonlinear time series analysis: Towards an effective forecast of rogue waves. in Solli DR, Solli DR, Dudley JM, Jalali B, Turitsyn SK, Hrsg., Real-Time Measurements, Rogue Events, and Emerging Applications. SPIE. 2016. 973205. (Proceedings of SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering). doi: 10.1117/12.2208251
Steinmeyer, Günter ; Birkholz, Simon ; Brée, Carsten et al. / Nonlinear time series analysis : Towards an effective forecast of rogue waves. Real-Time Measurements, Rogue Events, and Emerging Applications. Hrsg. / Daniel R. Solli ; Daniel R. Solli ; John M. Dudley ; Bahram Jalali ; Sergei K. Turitsyn. SPIE, 2016. (Proceedings of SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering).
Download
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