TY - JOUR

T1 - Hydrogen-powered aviation in Germany

T2 - A macroeconomic perspective and methodological approach of fuel supply chain integration into an economy-wide dataset

AU - Gronau, Steven

AU - Hoelzen, Julian

AU - Mueller, Tobias

AU - Hanke-Rauschenbach, Richard

N1 - Funding Information: Next to scientific studies, some industry reports also use macroeconomic approaches to assess H2 developments (see Refs. [56–58]). For example, the IEA [1] applied a multi-country general equilibrium model by the International Monetary Fund as part of the global “Net Zero by 2050” report. The model estimated the impacts of changes in H2 investment on future global GDP. Capital investment in H2 technology rises by 2050 as production facilities scale up and H2 in transport becomes more widespread. The surge in private and government spending on clean energy technologies creates a large number of jobs, stimulates economic output in the engineering, manufacturing and construction industries and positively affects global GDP. However, there are large differences between regions as a decline in fossil fuel use, investment and prices results in a fall in GDP in the respective producer economies. Such industry reports frequently fail to describe the methodology transparently and lack a scientific approach. It is difficult to draw conclusions about which results can be attributed to the model analysis. However, in a recent potential study of green gases for Central Germany, Ludwig Bölkow Systemtechnik (LBST) [59] provided a more comprehensive picture. The report determined value-added and employment effects using the I-O calculation method (based on data from the Federal Statistical Office). Investments in green H2 lead to positive economic effects driven by H2 demand from the chemical industry and power to liquid (PtL) production. Gross value added will exceed EUR 1 billion and over 8900 jobs will be created by 2040. H2 must be imported to fulfill demands, but the effects would increase (+10%) due to renewable energy expansions and consequently higher coverage of regional H2 demand by domestic generation. Domestic production leads to reduced import dependency, but imported H2 is likely to become cheaper. The potential study is one of the few investigations with detailed focus on Germany and H2 integration into a macro-framework, but limited to regional analysis and selected macro-indicators. For instance, it is not considered whether there will be job losses in other sectors. Funding Information: Steven Gronau and Julian Hoelzen acknowledge the financial support by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research of Germany in the framework of HyNEAT under grant no 03SF0670A. Funding Information: Tobias Mueller and Richard Hanke-Rauschenbach gratefully acknowledge funding from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) under Germany's Excellence Strategy – EXC - 2163/1 - Sustainable and Energy Efficient Aviation – Project-ID 390881007.

PY - 2023/2/15

Y1 - 2023/2/15

N2 - The hydrogen (H2) momentum affects the aviation sector. However, a macroeconomic consideration is currently missing. To address this research gap, the paper derives a methodology for evaluating macroeconomic effects of H2 in aviation and applies this approach to Germany. Three goals are addressed: (1) Construction of a German macroeconomic database. (2) Translation of H2 supply chains to the system of national accounts. (3) Implementation of H2-powered aviation into the macroeconomic data framework. The article presents an economy-wide database for analyzing H2-powered aviation. Subsequently, the paper highlights three H2 supply pathways, provides an exemplary techno-economic cost break-down for ten H2 components and translates them into the data framework. Eight relevant macroeconomic sectors for H2-powered aviation are identified and quantified. Overall, the paper contributes on a suitable foundation to apply the macroeconomic dataset and to conduct macroeconomic analyses on H2-powered aviation. Finally, the article highlights further research potential on job effects related to future H2 demand.

AB - The hydrogen (H2) momentum affects the aviation sector. However, a macroeconomic consideration is currently missing. To address this research gap, the paper derives a methodology for evaluating macroeconomic effects of H2 in aviation and applies this approach to Germany. Three goals are addressed: (1) Construction of a German macroeconomic database. (2) Translation of H2 supply chains to the system of national accounts. (3) Implementation of H2-powered aviation into the macroeconomic data framework. The article presents an economy-wide database for analyzing H2-powered aviation. Subsequently, the paper highlights three H2 supply pathways, provides an exemplary techno-economic cost break-down for ten H2 components and translates them into the data framework. Eight relevant macroeconomic sectors for H2-powered aviation are identified and quantified. Overall, the paper contributes on a suitable foundation to apply the macroeconomic dataset and to conduct macroeconomic analyses on H2-powered aviation. Finally, the article highlights further research potential on job effects related to future H2 demand.

KW - Economics

KW - Fuel supply chain

KW - Green hydrogen

KW - Hydrogen aviation

KW - Social accounting matrix

KW - Sustainable aviation

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85143272102&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2022.10.168

DO - 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2022.10.168

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85143272102

VL - 48

SP - 5347

EP - 5376

JO - International Journal of Hydrogen Energy

JF - International Journal of Hydrogen Energy

SN - 0360-3199

IS - 14

ER -