How to limit the spillover from an inflation surge to inflation expectations?

Publikation: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift › Artikel › Forschung › Peer-Review

Autoren

  • Lena Dräger
  • Michael J. Lamla
  • Damjan Pfajfar

Organisationseinheiten

Externe Organisationen

  • Münchener Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wirtschaftswissenschaft - CESifo GmbH
  • Universität Duisburg-Essen
  • ETH Zürich
  • Federal Reserve Bank
Forschungs-netzwerk anzeigen

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Aufsatznummer103546
FachzeitschriftJournal of Monetary Economics
Jahrgang144
Frühes Online-Datum19 Dez. 2023
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - Mai 2024

Abstract

Using a randomized control trial on German consumers we show that information about rising inflation increases inflation expectations. This initial increase in expectations can be mitigated by providing forecasts of inflation. Information about (future) inflation affects the whole term structure of inflation expectations, where the effects are smaller for longer-run expectations. This information also causes changes in consumption and savings decisions. In subsequent months—when consumers realize that inflation is much higher than the provided forecasts—they reverse the reliance on information about inflation forecasts and rely again more on their initial priors.

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete

Zitieren

How to limit the spillover from an inflation surge to inflation expectations? / Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael J.; Pfajfar, Damjan.
in: Journal of Monetary Economics, Jahrgang 144, 103546, 05.2024.

Publikation: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift › Artikel › Forschung › Peer-Review

Dräger L, Lamla MJ, Pfajfar D. How to limit the spillover from an inflation surge to inflation expectations? Journal of Monetary Economics. 2024 Mai;144:103546. Epub 2023 Dez 19. doi: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.12.004
Dräger, Lena ; Lamla, Michael J. ; Pfajfar, Damjan. / How to limit the spillover from an inflation surge to inflation expectations?. in: Journal of Monetary Economics. 2024 ; Jahrgang 144.
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