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How Accurate Are Expert Estimations of Correlation?

Publikation: Beitrag in Buch/Bericht/Sammelwerk/Konferenzband › Aufsatz in Konferenzband › Forschung › Peer-Review

Autorschaft

  • Michael Beer
  • Zitong Gong
  • Francisco Alejandro Diaz De La O
  • Vladik Kreinovich

Organisationseinheiten

Externe Organisationen

  • The University of Liverpool
  • Tongji University
  • University of Texas at El Paso

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Titel des Sammelwerks2017 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence, SSCI 2017 - Proceedings
Herausgeber (Verlag)Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Seiten1-9
Seitenumfang9
ISBN (elektronisch)9781538627266
ISBN (Print)9781538627273
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 2017
Veranstaltung2017 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence, SSCI 2017 - Honolulu, USA / Vereinigte Staaten
Dauer: 27 Nov. 2017 → 1 Dez. 2017

Abstract

In many practical situations, it is important to know the correlation between different quantities - finding correlations helps to gain insights into various relationships and phenomena, and helps to inform analysts. Often, there is not enough empirical data to experimentally determine all possible correlations. In such cases, a natural idea is to supplement this situation with expert estimates. Expert estimates are rather crude. So, to decide whether to act based on these estimates, it is desirable to know how accurate are expert estimates. In this paper, we propose several techniques for gauging this accuracy.

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete

Zitieren

How Accurate Are Expert Estimations of Correlation? / Beer, Michael; Gong, Zitong; Diaz De La O, Francisco Alejandro et al.
2017 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence, SSCI 2017 - Proceedings. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2017. S. 1-9.

Publikation: Beitrag in Buch/Bericht/Sammelwerk/Konferenzband › Aufsatz in Konferenzband › Forschung › Peer-Review

Beer, M, Gong, Z, Diaz De La O, FA & Kreinovich, V 2017, How Accurate Are Expert Estimations of Correlation? in 2017 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence, SSCI 2017 - Proceedings. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., S. 1-9, 2017 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence, SSCI 2017, Honolulu, USA / Vereinigte Staaten, 27 Nov. 2017. https://doi.org/10.1109/SSCI.2017.8280790
Beer, M., Gong, Z., Diaz De La O, F. A., & Kreinovich, V. (2017). How Accurate Are Expert Estimations of Correlation? In 2017 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence, SSCI 2017 - Proceedings (S. 1-9). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. https://doi.org/10.1109/SSCI.2017.8280790
Beer M, Gong Z, Diaz De La O FA, Kreinovich V. How Accurate Are Expert Estimations of Correlation? in 2017 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence, SSCI 2017 - Proceedings. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. 2017. S. 1-9 doi: 10.1109/SSCI.2017.8280790
Beer, Michael ; Gong, Zitong ; Diaz De La O, Francisco Alejandro et al. / How Accurate Are Expert Estimations of Correlation?. 2017 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence, SSCI 2017 - Proceedings. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2017. S. 1-9
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N1 - Funding information: This work was also supported in part by the National Science Foundation grants HRD-0734825 and HRD-1242122 (Cyber-ShARE Center of Excellence) and DUE-0926721, and by an award “UTEP and Prudential Actuarial Science Academy and Pipeline Initiative” from Prudential Foundation, and by a program of the China Scholarship Council. This work was performed when Zitong Gong and Vladik Kreinovich were visiting researchers at the Leibniz Universität Hannover, supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG), partially under a Mercator Fellowship within the Research Training Group GRK2159 (i.c.sens) and partially under the research project D5 “Risk Assessment of Regeneration Paths for Supporting Simultaneous Decisions” within the Collaborative Research Center (CRC) 871 – Regeneration of Complex Capital Goods.

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AB - In many practical situations, it is important to know the correlation between different quantities - finding correlations helps to gain insights into various relationships and phenomena, and helps to inform analysts. Often, there is not enough empirical data to experimentally determine all possible correlations. In such cases, a natural idea is to supplement this situation with expert estimates. Expert estimates are rather crude. So, to decide whether to act based on these estimates, it is desirable to know how accurate are expert estimates. In this paper, we propose several techniques for gauging this accuracy.

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KW - expert estimates

KW - fuzzy sets

KW - uncertainty

KW - vagueness

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