TY - JOUR

T1 - Geological reconstruction using conditional stochastic simulation for uncertainty analyses of water resources management(Liebenau, northwest Germany)

AU - Schöniger, Matthias

AU - Dietrich, Jörg

AU - Hattermann, Fred

PY - 2002

Y1 - 2002

N2 - The state-of-the-art in ground water modelling and water resources management is not only to simulate the properties of the subsurface, but also to assess the certainty or uncertainty of the results as an aid to decision making for local authorities and stake holders. On the one hand, groundwater is the main source of freshwater for human use. On the other, knowledge of the subsurface and therefore of those parts of the subsurface from which water is taken (the aquifer), is limited. In order to get the best possible result, all available information about the subsurface has to be taken into account. But some of this information, such as geological maps and seismic data, is uncertain to some degree, too. The goal of this study is to use a method with which it is possible to implement all available data (whether hard or soft) in a groundwater model, with respect to their spatial correlation and inherent variability. Based on this information the hydraulic properties, the groundwater flow and the migration of hazardous contaminants can not only be simulated, but also the uncertainty of the results can be evaluated. The method will be demonstrated on a regional scale in a study area situated in the northern part of Germany, where land use changes were the reason for increasing nitrate concentrations in the groundwater of a freshwater catchment, and as a result of that, new water and land use management types were introduced.

AB - The state-of-the-art in ground water modelling and water resources management is not only to simulate the properties of the subsurface, but also to assess the certainty or uncertainty of the results as an aid to decision making for local authorities and stake holders. On the one hand, groundwater is the main source of freshwater for human use. On the other, knowledge of the subsurface and therefore of those parts of the subsurface from which water is taken (the aquifer), is limited. In order to get the best possible result, all available information about the subsurface has to be taken into account. But some of this information, such as geological maps and seismic data, is uncertain to some degree, too. The goal of this study is to use a method with which it is possible to implement all available data (whether hard or soft) in a groundwater model, with respect to their spatial correlation and inherent variability. Based on this information the hydraulic properties, the groundwater flow and the migration of hazardous contaminants can not only be simulated, but also the uncertainty of the results can be evaluated. The method will be demonstrated on a regional scale in a study area situated in the northern part of Germany, where land use changes were the reason for increasing nitrate concentrations in the groundwater of a freshwater catchment, and as a result of that, new water and land use management types were introduced.

KW - Freshwater catchment

KW - Geological information

KW - Geological reconstruction

KW - Groundwater modelling

KW - Hard and soft data

KW - Indicator kriging

KW - Monte-Carlo method

KW - Nitrate concentration

KW - Uncertainty analyses

KW - Water budget

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0036098993&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:0036098993

SP - 163

EP - 168

JO - IAHS-AISH Publication

JF - IAHS-AISH Publication

SN - 0144-7815

IS - 273

ER -