TY - JOUR

T1 - Estimation of instantaneous peak flows from maximum mean daily flows using the HBV hydrological model

AU - Ding, J.

AU - Wallner, M.

AU - Müller, H.

AU - Haberlandt, U.

N1 - Funding Acknowledgements: We would like to thank Anna Sikorska, Korbinian Breinl and the other anonymous reviewer for the time and effort they spent on our manuscript. We also sincerely thank for the effort and time Jake Peters has spent as the editor on the manuscript. Special thanks go to Ross Pidoto and Sarah Collins for language editing. We are also grateful for the right to use data from the German National Weather Service (DWD), NLWKN Niedersachsen, Landesamt für Geoinformation und Landentwicklung Niedersachsen, Landesamt für Bergbau and the funding from the China Scholarship Council (CSC).

PY - 2016/4/30

Y1 - 2016/4/30

N2 - The record length and quality of instantaneous peak flows (IPFs) have a great influence on flood design, but these high resolution flow data are not always available. The primary aim of this study is to compare different strategies to derive frequency distributions of IPFs using the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) hydrologic model. The model is operated on a daily and an hourly time step for 18 catchments in the Aller-Leine basin, Germany. Subsequently, general extreme value (GEV) distributions are fitted to the simulated annual series of daily and hourly extreme flows. The resulting maximum mean daily flow (MDF) quantiles from daily simulations are transferred into IPF quantiles using a multiple regression model, which enables a direct comparison with the simulated hourly quantiles. As long climate records with a high temporal resolution are not available, the hourly simulations require a disaggregation of the daily rainfall. Additionally, two calibrations strategies are applied: (1) a calibration on flow statistics; (2) a calibration on hydrographs. The results show that: (1) the multiple regression model is capable of predicting IPFs with the simulated MDFs; (2) both daily simulations with post-correction of flows and hourly simulations with pre-processing of precipitation enable a reasonable estimation of IPFs; (3) the best results are achieved using disaggregated rainfall for hourly modelling with calibration on flow statistics; and (4) if the IPF observations are not sufficient for model calibration on flow statistics, the transfer of MDFs via multiple regressions is a good alternative for estimating IPFs.

AB - The record length and quality of instantaneous peak flows (IPFs) have a great influence on flood design, but these high resolution flow data are not always available. The primary aim of this study is to compare different strategies to derive frequency distributions of IPFs using the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) hydrologic model. The model is operated on a daily and an hourly time step for 18 catchments in the Aller-Leine basin, Germany. Subsequently, general extreme value (GEV) distributions are fitted to the simulated annual series of daily and hourly extreme flows. The resulting maximum mean daily flow (MDF) quantiles from daily simulations are transferred into IPF quantiles using a multiple regression model, which enables a direct comparison with the simulated hourly quantiles. As long climate records with a high temporal resolution are not available, the hourly simulations require a disaggregation of the daily rainfall. Additionally, two calibrations strategies are applied: (1) a calibration on flow statistics; (2) a calibration on hydrographs. The results show that: (1) the multiple regression model is capable of predicting IPFs with the simulated MDFs; (2) both daily simulations with post-correction of flows and hourly simulations with pre-processing of precipitation enable a reasonable estimation of IPFs; (3) the best results are achieved using disaggregated rainfall for hourly modelling with calibration on flow statistics; and (4) if the IPF observations are not sufficient for model calibration on flow statistics, the transfer of MDFs via multiple regressions is a good alternative for estimating IPFs.

KW - Aller-Leine catchment

KW - Germany

KW - Hydrological modelling

KW - Instantaneous peak flow (IPF)

KW - Maximum mean daily flow (MDF)

KW - Model calibration

KW - Rainfall disaggregation model

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84949908338&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - https://doi.org/10.15488/1680

DO - https://doi.org/10.15488/1680

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84949908338

VL - 30

SP - 1431

EP - 1448

JO - Hydrological processes

JF - Hydrological processes

SN - 0885-6087

IS - 9

ER -