Enhanced Bayesian Network approach to sea wave overtopping hazard quantification

Publikation: Beitrag in Buch/Bericht/Sammelwerk/KonferenzbandAufsatz in KonferenzbandForschungPeer-Review

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  • The University of Liverpool
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OriginalspracheEnglisch
Titel des SammelwerksSafety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems
UntertitelProceedings of the 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2015
Herausgeber/-innenLuca Podofillini, Bruno Sudret, Božidar Stojadinović, Enrico Zio, Wolfgang Kröger
Seiten1983-1990
Seitenumfang8
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 2015
Extern publiziertJa
Veranstaltung25th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2015 - Zurich, Swasiland
Dauer: 7 Sept. 201510 Sept. 2015

Abstract

A novel, generally applicable and efficient framework for the quantification of the wave overtopping hazard is proposed. The approach adopted for the model implementation relies on the use of Bayesian Networks enhanced with System Reliability methods. The methodology ensures large flexibility in terms of representation of the uncertainties of the inputs (exact, probabilistic or intervals) as well as of the outputs. Moreover, the flexibility of the approach allows analysing several time scenarios from 2020 to 2100, taking into account different emission projections and their uncertainty. The overall aim of the study is to provide a simple and coherent framework which takes into account the expected sea level rise for the evaluation of future overtopping hazards for existing or planned sea defence structures. The model proposed is then applied to a simple case study, to highlight the advantages and drawbacks of the framework developed.

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete

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Enhanced Bayesian Network approach to sea wave overtopping hazard quantification. / Tolo, S.; Patelli, E.; Beer, M.
Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems: Proceedings of the 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2015. Hrsg. / Luca Podofillini; Bruno Sudret; Božidar Stojadinović; Enrico Zio; Wolfgang Kröger. 2015. S. 1983-1990.

Publikation: Beitrag in Buch/Bericht/Sammelwerk/KonferenzbandAufsatz in KonferenzbandForschungPeer-Review

Tolo, S, Patelli, E & Beer, M 2015, Enhanced Bayesian Network approach to sea wave overtopping hazard quantification. in L Podofillini, B Sudret, B Stojadinović, E Zio & W Kröger (Hrsg.), Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems: Proceedings of the 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2015. S. 1983-1990, 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2015, Zurich, Swasiland, 7 Sept. 2015. <https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281863858_Enhanced_Bayesian_Network_approach_to_sea_wave_overtopping_hazard_quantification>
Tolo, S., Patelli, E., & Beer, M. (2015). Enhanced Bayesian Network approach to sea wave overtopping hazard quantification. In L. Podofillini, B. Sudret, B. Stojadinović, E. Zio, & W. Kröger (Hrsg.), Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems: Proceedings of the 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2015 (S. 1983-1990) https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281863858_Enhanced_Bayesian_Network_approach_to_sea_wave_overtopping_hazard_quantification
Tolo S, Patelli E, Beer M. Enhanced Bayesian Network approach to sea wave overtopping hazard quantification. in Podofillini L, Sudret B, Stojadinović B, Zio E, Kröger W, Hrsg., Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems: Proceedings of the 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2015. 2015. S. 1983-1990
Tolo, S. ; Patelli, E. ; Beer, M. / Enhanced Bayesian Network approach to sea wave overtopping hazard quantification. Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems: Proceedings of the 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2015. Hrsg. / Luca Podofillini ; Bruno Sudret ; Božidar Stojadinović ; Enrico Zio ; Wolfgang Kröger. 2015. S. 1983-1990
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title = "Enhanced Bayesian Network approach to sea wave overtopping hazard quantification",
abstract = "A novel, generally applicable and efficient framework for the quantification of the wave overtopping hazard is proposed. The approach adopted for the model implementation relies on the use of Bayesian Networks enhanced with System Reliability methods. The methodology ensures large flexibility in terms of representation of the uncertainties of the inputs (exact, probabilistic or intervals) as well as of the outputs. Moreover, the flexibility of the approach allows analysing several time scenarios from 2020 to 2100, taking into account different emission projections and their uncertainty. The overall aim of the study is to provide a simple and coherent framework which takes into account the expected sea level rise for the evaluation of future overtopping hazards for existing or planned sea defence structures. The model proposed is then applied to a simple case study, to highlight the advantages and drawbacks of the framework developed.",
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