TY - JOUR

T1 - Emotions and voting behavior in self-determination referendums

T2 - the case of New Caledonia in 2018

AU - Brouard, Sylvain

AU - Vasilopoulos, Pavlos

AU - Gorohouna, Samuel

AU - Hönnige, Christoph

AU - Kerrouche, Eric

PY - 2021/2

Y1 - 2021/2

N2 - In this article we examine the impact of emotions in an independence referendum. New Caledonia – a French Pacific territory with 270,000 inhabitants – held a self-determination referendum in November 2018, in which 56% of the voters opted to remain a part of France. We conducted a post-referendum survey with 1496 respondents that included a specific battery to measure emotions as well as control variables. We find that experiencing anger with the national status of the territory increases the probability of voting for independence, while experiencing pride reduces it. These results remain after controlling for partisan, ethnic and national identification, expected effects of independence as well as sociodemographic factors. Moreover, emotions and identity interact and increase the effect of (the lack of) national identification. Beyond the effects of the traditional control variables, the results suggest that knowledge about voting behavior in independence referendums is transferable to decolonization in Pacific Islands.

AB - In this article we examine the impact of emotions in an independence referendum. New Caledonia – a French Pacific territory with 270,000 inhabitants – held a self-determination referendum in November 2018, in which 56% of the voters opted to remain a part of France. We conducted a post-referendum survey with 1496 respondents that included a specific battery to measure emotions as well as control variables. We find that experiencing anger with the national status of the territory increases the probability of voting for independence, while experiencing pride reduces it. These results remain after controlling for partisan, ethnic and national identification, expected effects of independence as well as sociodemographic factors. Moreover, emotions and identity interact and increase the effect of (the lack of) national identification. Beyond the effects of the traditional control variables, the results suggest that knowledge about voting behavior in independence referendums is transferable to decolonization in Pacific Islands.

KW - Decolonization

KW - Emotions

KW - Independence

KW - Pacific Islands

KW - Referendum

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85097425895&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.electstud.2020.102251

DO - 10.1016/j.electstud.2020.102251

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85097425895

VL - 69

JO - Electoral studies

JF - Electoral studies

SN - 0261-3794

M1 - 102251

ER -