TY - JOUR

T1 - Efficient reliability analysis of complex systems in consideration of imprecision

AU - Salomon, Julian

AU - Winnewisser, Niklas

AU - Wei, Pengfei

AU - Broggi, Matteo

AU - Beer, Michael

N1 - Funding Information: Funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) SFB 871/3 119193472 , the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC 72171194) and Sino-German Center for Research Promotion (Sino-German Mobility Program) , Project number M-0175.

PY - 2021/12

Y1 - 2021/12

N2 - In this work, the reliability of complex systems under consideration of imprecision is addressed. By joining two methods coming from different fields, namely, structural reliability and system reliability, a novel methodology is derived. The concepts of survival signature, fuzzy probability theory and the two versions of non-intrusive stochastic simulation (NISS) methods are adapted and merged, providing an efficient approach to quantify the reliability of complex systems taking into account the whole uncertainty spectrum. The new approach combines both of the advantageous characteristics of its two original components: 1. a significant reduction of the computational effort due to the separation property of the survival signature, i.e., once the system structure has been computed, any possible characterization of the probabilistic part can be tested with no need to recompute the structure and 2. a dramatically reduced sample size due to the adapted NISS methods, for which only a single stochastic simulation is required, avoiding the double loop simulations traditionally employed. Beyond the merging of the theoretical aspects, the approach is employed to analyze a functional model of an axial compressor and an arbitrary complex system, providing accurate results and demonstrating efficiency and broad applicability.

AB - In this work, the reliability of complex systems under consideration of imprecision is addressed. By joining two methods coming from different fields, namely, structural reliability and system reliability, a novel methodology is derived. The concepts of survival signature, fuzzy probability theory and the two versions of non-intrusive stochastic simulation (NISS) methods are adapted and merged, providing an efficient approach to quantify the reliability of complex systems taking into account the whole uncertainty spectrum. The new approach combines both of the advantageous characteristics of its two original components: 1. a significant reduction of the computational effort due to the separation property of the survival signature, i.e., once the system structure has been computed, any possible characterization of the probabilistic part can be tested with no need to recompute the structure and 2. a dramatically reduced sample size due to the adapted NISS methods, for which only a single stochastic simulation is required, avoiding the double loop simulations traditionally employed. Beyond the merging of the theoretical aspects, the approach is employed to analyze a functional model of an axial compressor and an arbitrary complex system, providing accurate results and demonstrating efficiency and broad applicability.

KW - Complex systems

KW - Epistemic uncertainty

KW - Extended Monte Carlo methods

KW - Fuzzy probabilities

KW - Imprecision

KW - Non-intrusive imprecise stochastic simulation

KW - Reliability analysis

KW - Survival signature

KW - System reliability

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85114502651&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107972

DO - 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107972

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85114502651

VL - 216

JO - Reliability engineering & system safety

JF - Reliability engineering & system safety

SN - 0951-8320

M1 - 107972

ER -